Patrick Honohan told the Oireachtas committee a few days ago that “2,800 mortgages issued in 2013 would have been affected by the proposed new lending rules”.
There are a few reasons why this is bad use of data. For a start, in 2013 in gross numbers there were 14,984 mortgages drawn down. If you strip out re-mortgages, switchers, top ups and investment loans to get an idea of the actual ‘home purchase’ group it comes down to 12, 875 which means 22% of all loans.
Secondly, 2013 is a low level year in lending, the charts below show the draw-downs and the number of loans, they are at anaemic levels and don’t show any sign of a credit bubble in a country that is still rapidly deleveraging.
How can this be interpreted as a rising risk? The rising prices are a separate issue, but that some wave of credit is ready to swamp down on limited supply denies the fact that most of the market is in …