We were asked to take part in a panel discussion on TV3’s “Tonight with Vincent Browne” to discuss housing. The main point that we raised was that prices are going to rise with or without any ‘help to buy’ scheme due to factors outside of the Governments control (such as zero interest rate policy by Central Banks).
We were featured in today’s Irish Times on an article by Barry McCall asking ‘why do we have housing shortages’.
Our contribution is as follows: Karl Deeter of Irish Mortgage Brokers believes this is part of a global trend. “The mega-trend is that we are now living in a low-yield world,” he says. “Central banks are being forced to play both sides of the same table. Low interest rates cause asset prices to rise and the Central Bank is curtailing credit to prevent asset price rises. But there is an upward pressure on house prices despite this and it has been compounded by the earlier economic collapse which has led to supply disruption. These are trends that are bigger than any of us.”
While the Central Bank rules are undoubtedly playing a part in the problem, Deeter sees supply as equally, if not more, important and one factor here is planning laws. “Ireland has a particular problem when it comes to third-party property rights,” he argues. “Planning applications for housing developments are being turned down in areas where …
Housing is confounding, we are at a frustrating juncture where after a massive property crash brought about in part by a glut of housing we now have the opposite situation of a housing shortage in many areas.
Solutions abound, but no matter what happens this shortage is going to persist due to the time it takes to deliver housing and even if we announced a shovel ready, commencing tomorrow plan for 25,000 houses in cities the shortage would persist for at least another two years.
When you see various commentators saying what will or won’t work it’s almost arbitrary because nothing works in the short term, the main ingredient required to fix this is time.
Housing grants to first time buyers may push up prices, even if they don’t it doesn’t of itself create supply today. Many of the proposals will serve one side of a transaction without affecting price.
If we got rid of VAT would house prices drop? Or would developers merely pocket the additional income because of the fact that a price set during a shortage becomes …
The Pat Kenny Show on Newstalk had Karl Deeter in studio to discuss the property market today. We tried to make the point that there are several issues in the market making a tricky situation even harder to navigate, but that double sided approaches by the Central Bank (loose monetary policy and low interest rates) are helping to drive prices up while other rules are attempting to restrict credit.
This picture speaks a thousand words and in many cases tens of thousands of earnings that a person would have to have in order to afford an average home in different parts of the country. We used recent data from the Daft report and then broke it down into borrowings and compared that to average wages.
The column after ‘county’ is the average price in that region. If we assume a first time buyer will typically want a 90% mortgage we then look at the amount of earnings they’d need to have in order to get the loan.
The last column is where the real story lies, it compares prices in the area to average wages taken from the CSO.
Anything in a white cell with a minus is very affordable, anything in black means you’d have to be earning above average wage to buy a property in the area.
If the cell has a red background that is showing you where the difference is greater than €10,000.
It’s fairly clear that cities and in some cases …
We sent our research and thoughts on the lending rules to the Central Bank as part of their industry consultation process regarding the existing mortgage lending rules.
While we are critical of them in particular for first time buyers, we haven’t had an issue on other aspects of it (such as controls for investors). The submission argues with supporting evidence for 90% loans for first time buyers to be available generally but to keep other controls generally in place, or to do nothing at all and give the adjustments more time to bed in.
Submission is here: 2016 Central Bank macroprudential rules submission Irish Mortgage Brokers
The findings of a survey carried out by Behavior and Attitudes of clients of Irish Mortgage Brokers, DNG and Hooke & MacDonald which was mentioned in the press is also available here: 2016 MacroPrudential review – survey findings
On the 25th of August we were featured on RTE’s ‘Drivetime’ with Mary Wilson to discuss Home Choice Loan which is a state run mortgage lender. The state lender has only done 21 loans to date or about 3 loans a year.
There are many reasons that HomeChoiceLoan should be popular but in practice they are not lending and there are many questions about the validity and use the scheme has.
Karl Deeter was on Today FM’s ‘The Last Word’ with Matt Cooper to discuss proposals by TD Ruth Coppinger to break the law if you are at risk of eviction.
Our view is that the law should be honoured and that to suggest breaking the law ought to be way down the list of suggestions for people with housing difficulties. It would make far more sense to speak to the Department of Social Protection and to use the services and protections that we have set up as a society rather than to take the law into your own hands.
We were speaking to Jonathan Healy who was covering for George Hook on ‘The Right Hook’ about the ‘home renovation initiative’ which is set to end at the end of 2016. We covered some of the general terms and conditions of how it worked then went on to analyse whether it was a good idea or not given the various happenings everywhere else in the market.
Population: 81,770,900 GDP: $3,467,780,000,000 Avg. Weekly Earnings: €962.00 Avg. Apartment Price (Per. Sq. M.): €4,078.00 For 120-sq. m. apartment in city centre Avg. Monthly Rent: €830.78
German rent control systems are often heralded as a solution to the problem of unaffordable housing. Germany boasts the strongest economy in the European Union and, despite experiences difficulties of its own during the economic contraction of 2008, has been rapidly recovering to pre-recession levels.
Among the countries we have analysed, Germany is the most receptive to tenant-friendly legislation; German home-ownership is the second-lowest in the European Union, at 52.5% in 2014, and as low as 15% in municipalities like Berlin.
Historically, property prices have risen very slowly in Germany, removing one of the primary motivations for buying a home: hedging against rising future rents. To compound this, German banks are notoriously risk-adverse, and these stringent lending practices protect the housing market from financial market distortions, reducing the risk of default and providing market stability.
According to the OECD Better Life Index, 93% of Germans are satisfied with their current housing situation, which has …