Irish debt, third most likely to default in the world?

Credit Default Swaps hit a record high yesterday for Irish Sovereign Debt. CNBC spoke to Brian Cowen on this topic yesterday, our Student Protests got a mention at the very start, Mr. Cowen believes this is short term sentiment, and while you can use a cyclical argument against Ireland, there is a secular argument about our debt: that it will be more expensive in the future (forever).

Using credit default swaps we are placing ahead (as in more risky) than Pakistan, Argentina and Iraq! Behind only Venezuela and Greece, interesting times….

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Nassim Taleb on Debt

Nassim Taleb says in this interview that the debt problems of 2010 are worse than those of 2008, he has re-released his now famous book ‘Black Swan’, and his core belief presently is that recession is not the issue, debt is the issue. Fragility is exacerbated by high levels of debt – we can see that from an Irish context on Sovereign Debt/Bank Debt (whether the problem is real or perceived).

One of the most poignant things Taleb talks about is the failure of stimulus, and he rightly points out that Greece is not being asked to ‘stimulate’ their way out of their debt issues, they are being asked to look for austerity solutions, perhaps Keynesian beliefs might be shunted once again into history?

The point holds true in our opinion, high levels of debt are a wealth destroyer and inhibitor to prosperity, the drag on economies, in particular our own, will be evident for many years to come.

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