We were asked to discuss whether or not we have a property bubble at present in Dublin. We don’t have a ‘bubble’ but we do have a boom and booms often lead to bubbles so the time for action is now, not later.
Pat Kenny spoke to us about the report from the ESRI which indicated that many people were now getting out of negative equity due to rising prices.
This needs to be tempered by a realisation that on every commodity that there are winners and losers, the losers are just not as clearly framed as the winners and this was a point we tried to make.
Keelin Shanley was sitting in for Sean O’Rourke on the Today Show on RTE Radio 1. She had Brian Lucey and Karl Deeter on the show to discuss the issues with the property market in Ireland and in Dublin in particular where prices rose 22% in the last year.
We spoke to Jonathan Healy on Newstalk’s ‘Lunchtime’ about the issue of rising house prices and how the solution is more supply, at least relative to many other commonly prescribed fixes.
We also discussed the idea of there being a fee for making a bid on a property as well.
We were pleased to chat with Sean Moncrieff on his afternoon show on Newstalk 106. Karl told everybody in the office that his Newstalk ‘Bingo Card’ had finally reached completion after seven years (this was the last show he needed to get on to be on every show he could potentially appear on).
Today we were featured on the Sean Moncrieff show on Newstalk and the topic was primarily about housing bubbles. How they happen, who benefits etc. then a twitter user @TheSecondGoing sent a link to this video which is a good effort at explaining some of the ideas that were raised in the show.
We were asked to speak to Audrey Carville on Drivetime (she’s covering for Mary Wilson) about property prices. This interview was highly enjoyable as we got to flesh out some complex ideas and taking the time to do it is not always available on live radio. See what you think of the analysis!
We spoke to Jonathan Healy today and made the point that (didn’t seem to crop up elsewhere yet) that banks are creating a false scarcity in properties for sale by sitting on non performing loans and not moving in on them. We demonstrated only yesterday that the ‘flim flam’ of ‘we may or may not repossess you’ is a real thing.
The investors don’t fear them, our chat with a strategic defaulter only solidified that belief. At the same time the absence of reasonable lending amounts coupled with this false scarcity means prices will rise, and the good news for banks is that it means provisioning less for loss making loans!
Robert Kitchen of NUIM did a great post on people talking up the market. He stated that “What the data shows is that housing unit sales are relatively consistent over the past three and a half years, except for a brief surge at the end of 2012“.
As a person who trades in this area I don’t share the view that it’s totally consistent, there are peaks and troughs as seen in the graph from that blog.
He also states that “The first six months of 2013 are very similar in pattern to 2010. In fact, in the first six months of 2013 only 273 more units have been sold than the first six months of 2010. The data does not suggest then that there has been a bounce back in market activity to any significant degree”.
I suppose that comes down to what you call significant, if you are looking for any trend activity then take a look at …
We are doing an online survey for people who bought investment properties in the past, the survey is here.
If you can answer it please do, the research is in conjunction with Brian Lucey from Trinity College, Marie Hunt from CBRE and Irish Mortgage Brokers.
It will help to get a feel for what motivated property purchases and perhaps give some greater insight into the people behind the Irish investment property market.
Your help is appreciated,
Irish Mortgage Brokers