We were asked to speak to TV3 news about the ECB rate cut yesterday which was rather unexpected. We are now at a point where for some tracker mortgages their interest rate is effectively only made up of the fixed margin over ECB base rate.
Pat Kenny spoke to us about the report from the ESRI which indicated that many people were now getting out of negative equity due to rising prices.
This needs to be tempered by a realisation that on every commodity that there are winners and losers, the losers are just not as clearly framed as the winners and this was a point we tried to make.
We spoke about the up and down sides of coming out of negative equity 0n Today with Sean O’Rourke on RTE1 where Keelin Shanley was sitting in.
There are winners and losers in every economy, and many things in economic terms come with a series of trade offs. So to think that rising house prices are a good thing is only taking the view from one pre-determined set of assumptions, there are many losers when we create winners and that needs to be remembered. We are hopeful that those points were well made.
Today Bank of Ireland chief Richie Boucher spoke about strategic defaulters, the wording used was different, he spoke about tendencies to engage in “a diversion of rental income that should be coming to the bank”.
Who will the receivers be? I suspect it will be some of the well known estate agents who I know are in talks with other banks on the same basis. The ‘receiver of rent’ clause in many mortgage contracts is often unenforced. The ability to obtain it is not generally contested but it still requires a court order and then the operational difficulty of getting to the property to explain this to the tenant and then taking over the collection of the rent.
Why has the level of arrears spiked in the investment pool of business? Theories abound, my own (which makes me vastly unpopular) is that it is down to making a business decision in favour of oneself. However, getting a rent receiver is not a ‘fix’ and I think Bank of Ireland will …
We were featured on TV3’s ‘The Morning Show with Sybil & Martin’ in a piece they did on the recent Allsops auction. Angela Keegan of MyHome.ie and Karl Deeter of our own company took part.
The general view we have is that if you mark down prices enough then people are willing to buy what they see as value, that means that either prices remain too high or sentiment is such that appetite is not there at the current price level (we suspect the former weighs heavier than the latter!).
We were featured on the RTE news yesterday on a piece about negative equity, property prices and the Irish market.
The second piece is in studio, where David Duffy joins Brian Dobson, talking about property prices in Ireland and discussing the recent report which shows that the rate of decline in prices has been slowing.
The recent liquidation sales have possibly started a new trend in the property market in Ireland, one whereby there is an increasing divide between the valuations in different types of property, we have long been saying that the only market worth considering is non-apartment second hand homes in cities, the liquidation sales have reinforced this belief.
While we may be part of Europe, when it comes to living spaces we believe that Irish people favour houses to apartments, we have not crossed that particular Rubicon just yet and unlike our European counterparts, there is still a wish to own the land under the dwelling, over time this may change, but with the exception of the bubble-times the overwhelming mortgage for a first time buyer was used to purchase a house and not an apartment.
The situation regarding the property market in Dublin (for instance) will likely be one where apartments are seen as a totally separate market, in the past many newly built apartments were not priced on a totally dissimilar basis to houses of comparable square footage in the …
Why have a two handed economist when you can have two one handed economists? (my jokes deteriorate in quality by the day)
Today there are two very different opinions on the property outlook in Ireland from two very different commentators, first up is David McWilliams who wrote a piece in today’s Independent, where he says the nation is a ‘Bankocracy‘ and that property prices have much further to fall – to the tune of a further 45% according to his figures (saying that current avg. prices are €250k and they should be c. €135k). He implores people to look at the fundamentals of the market and price via yields [disclosure: we support his valuation approach, it was the basis of our investor reports].
McWilliams is probably right, the market is not at the bottom, having said that, there is no metric which can gauge bottoms, even in stock analysis you can use Fibonacci numbers or Bollinger’s to look for trends or turning points, but there is no …
TRS or Tax Relief at Source, is a mortgage related tax relief available to first time buyers. The working elements of it will be described in today’s post.
When you draw down a mortgage, if you are a qualifying applicant, then you can then apply for your TRS by downloading the TRS1p form from the Revenue website. After you send it off it will take a few weeks to process, and then you will get the years tax relief averaged out over the remainder of the year.
For example (we’ll show the calculations later) if your mortgage drew down in January but your TRS only kicked in during March then the relief would be paid as the average of 12 months over 9 months – say it was meant to be €300 per month (had it started in January) then you’d be getting €400 per month for the remainder of the partial year.