Priming the property pump

The issue with Irish property (in particular Dublin where demand is evident) is that the pump has been primed in many different ways, first we’ll look at ‘how’ and then we’ll look at the aftermath using a worked example.

First of all, here are some of the things that are driving the market…

1. Build up of buyers, be they first time buyers or REIT’s who are able to take up any available supply.2. ECB rates are low, yield searching is an issue, deposit rates are low as is the risk free rate by comparison.3. Tax policy is an issue, from 2014 the marginal rate applies meaning that in a few short years the tax has gone up by 105% on savings from 20% to 41%.4. Finally, there is the Capital Gains Tax waiver if you buy a property and hold it for 7 years.

So here’s a worked example of the massive give away this represents and why it is mobilising so much money into property. We’ll take an identical €200,000 make a comparison over 7yrs from 2014 and …

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McWilliams vs Murgatroyd

Why have a two handed economist when you can have two one handed economists? (my jokes deteriorate in quality by the day)

Today there are two very different opinions on the property outlook in Ireland from two very different commentators, first up is David McWilliams who wrote a piece in today’s Independent, where he says the nation is a ‘Bankocracy‘ and that property prices have much further to fall – to the tune of a further 45% according to his figures (saying that current avg. prices are €250k and they should be c. €135k). He implores people to look at the fundamentals of the market and price via yields [disclosure: we support his valuation approach, it was the basis of our investor reports].

McWilliams is probably right, the market is not at the bottom, having said that, there is no metric which can gauge bottoms, even in stock analysis you can use Fibonacci numbers or Bollinger’s to look for trends or turning points, but there is no …

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