Where is oil going? We have seen predictions of $200 per barrel from Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun Murti (he was the guy who was right about $100 oil last year when it was $50) and recently Alexey Miller of Gazprom said they see oil going to $250 per barrel by this time next year.
I am going to go against these great minds and instead predict a fall off in crude oil prices. Why? Simply put, I believe that a global downturn and the end of fuel subsidies in many Asian nations will all converge to give an overhang, and this, combined with an OPEC vision of a world bound to oil will bring about the fall.
It’s important to expand on these points, firstly, Asian nations are all talking about ending fuel subsidies, in many countries subsidies account for up to