We were asked to take part in a panel discussion on TV3’s “Tonight with Vincent Browne” to discuss housing. The main point that we raised was that prices are going to rise with or without any ‘help to buy’ scheme due to factors outside of the Governments control (such as zero interest rate policy by Central Banks).
The Sunday Independent mentioned Irish Mortgage Brokers in their article yesterday. We were making the point that being ‘middle class’ today means less than it did in the past when it comes to housing.
Karl Deeter, of Irish Mortgage Brokers, argues that today’s middle-class lack the conventional trappings of previous generations.
“Many have been badly hit with negative equity property, others are unable to save the 20pc deposit that the Central Bank demands. Their cost of living is very high, their wages haven’t improved in real terms. They’re facing huge rent hikes. They pay an awful lot of tax.
“And yet the Government thinks they will have somehow been able to save for a 20pc deposit [to buy a home]. Where do they think the money is coming from? They’re the group that have been hit hardest. They can’t rely on State help like those below them can, and they can’t avail of the sort of tax arrangements that the elites can. They’ve borne the brunt of the recession and they’re bearing the brunt of this so-called recovery.”
There was an interesting infographic out today from One Big Switch showing what people have done in order to make their mortgage repayments.
It ranged from working extra hours, to taking fewer holidays and socializing less. What is interesting about this, is that nobody tends to look at the wider economy effects of high mortgage rates, and the Central Bank while saying they want to examine them, cannot and will not do anything about it.
Higher rates act like an informal ‘tax’, and as some banks are foreign owned it means taking income out of the Irish economy and funnelling it elsewhere, this affects our balance of trade and was a reason we always questioned the Patrick Honohan diktat of not having an issue if all banks were foreign owned.
This informal tax reduces expenditure in the productive economy and goes towards rationalizing zombie balance sheets, so lower rates should be a priority for everybody, but the way to get there isn’t force, it’s competition and for that reason we are hopeful that the switching campaign will be a successful …
We were asked to take part in Pat Kenny’s ‘Friday Panel’ which was hosted by Shane Coleman. The discussion was on many property matters and went on to cover politics and crime. The panel members were Michael O’Regan the political correspondent of the Irish Times, Martina Devlin who is a well known journalist and author, and lastly was our own Karl Deeter.
In an article by Sinead Ryan in the Independent we were quoted on several matters:
With all the talk of celebrating the Rising in 2016, it won’t extend to a rising mortgage market, says broker Karl Deeter. “The changes to lending criteria and in particular the Central Bank changes meant that while 90pc LTV (loan to value) mortgages were available, as the year progressed more banks started to withdraw them. Due to the way the figures are going to be reported in 2016 it will be a case of, ‘Want a 90pc mortgage? Get it in January or July’. And that’s because the half-year periods are going to be the times in which they are mostly available.”
One positive change, says Deeter, was that interest rates came down during the year, in particular fixed rates as banks came under pressure to explain Ireland’s excessive rates compared to those enjoyed by our EU neighbours. Although all banks rocked up at the Banking Inquiry, and most were (or tried their best to sound) contrite, the truth is that pillar Bank …
We were never advocates or in agreement with the ‘make government force mortgage rates down’ campaign (albeit on very friendly terms with the campaign promoters). The reason was that rates needed to come down in a natural way or banks would curtail credit or charge more elsewhere, this was a balancing act between sorting out operational costs and back book issues.
The belief we had, and one that does seem to be bearing fruit, was a slower (ie: less popular) road to lower rates, brought about by competition.
This has been happening, it doesn’t make headlines because it’s a slower burn but the trend is under way and it goes like this: more competition equals lower rates, the higher rates spur competition as it attracts new entrants and in time, when matched with a low yield curve, rates will fall.
The introduction of Pepper into the market, along with general competition has meant that the rate reduction cycle has begun. The hallmarks are that firstly, rates are high after a financial crash, that always happens, those high rates bring in …
The Surveyors Journal did an excellent info-graphic on how much it costs to build a house (with no land cost factored in)
It’s fairly clear that costs are not as simple as ‘cheaper land’. That is only one part of the equation, the other parts are things like local authority costs, Part V, VAT, expected profits, all of which are not directly linked to prime costs of the materials and labour that creates the construction part of the home.
Worth looking at twice before wondering why housing is so damn expensive.
Yesterday we were on the Sean O’Rourke show discussing variable rates on RTE Radio. We mentioned how doubling the ‘tax’ on banks won’t actually change anything. The mechanisms were briefly covered and we got a few emails asking for clarification so here it is.
The ‘levy’ was part of the Finance Act 2014 which imposed a new annual levy on financial institutions aiming to raise €150 million per annum for 3 years.
This sum is payable on October the 20th in each year (2014-2016) and it applies to a financial institution that is the holder of an Irish (or equivalent EU) banking licence or is an Irish (or equiv EU) building society that was obliged to pay DIRT – unless the amount required to pay in 2011 was not more than 100k.
The main outcry is centred on variable rates for primary home dwellers in particular. So how much of that debt is out there?
We know there are about 300,000 ‘loans’ but the quantum of debt is €39.638m which is about €3bn …
The EuroMoney conference was held for the firs time in Dublin last week and opened by the Minister of Finance Michael Noonan. It had a great line up of speakers including several CEO’s of our largest financial institutions and was an opportunity for professional practitioners to discuss recent developments and many aspects of the market in general.
Karl Deeter was there to represent Irish Mortgage Broker and to take part in the panel discussion on property.