U.S Housing Market since ’08

It’s been ten years since the U.S. housing market crashed and caused many banks to close their doors and many people to lose their homes.

The question today is, has the market recovered? It depends on where you look….it is predicted that the market will have fully recovered by 2025, says Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist.

When predicting the recovery of the housing market, it is vital that you keep in mind the key factor of location.

Housing development varies greatly from state to state and it is places like California where we see a complete recovery in some areas and little to no recovery in others.

Such a large range between close by spaces is due to factors such as the city’s overall well-being. By this, I mean population growth and job outlook.

When a community is expanding and working within its own limits it is inevitable that different areas in the community will also look up, such as the housing market.

When developing the statistics in assessing the recovery of the housing market we compare current data to pre-recession …

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Today FM: Varadkar comments on housing deposits discussed

We were on Today FM to talk about comments made by the Taoiseach regarding how people come up with money for a deposit to buy a home. While many were finding it a source of outrage, we were making the point that it’s incredibly common and that it actually is a normal occurrence albeit not ‘the norm’ for everybody (because nothing is universal).

This is a good discussion because in our view it shows the way that housing shortages can turn into all manner of talking point arguments, we don’t think it’s realistic to tell parents you can’t help your kids or to say that it’s wrong in any way, but we do agree with Sinead from TheJournal that we have a housing shortage and that this is really where the problem lies.

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The Times: Maybe I’ll buy a home after the apocalypse

We were mentioned in the Times of Ireland recently in an article on housing crashes “It seems we’re due another property crash, that’s if the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and financial adviser Karl Deeter are anything to go by. Both said in the summer that Ireland was at risk of another housing bubble and subsequent bust, with the latter going so far as to pin the date to sometime in the early 2020s”.

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Non-credit fuelled booms

There has been an ongoing narrative that the last housing boom (and many others) was only possible due to excessive credit. We have argued for a long time that this is a mistaken interpretation. While credit can make a bad situation worse, just like adding fuel to a flame, it is not the genesis of the problem.

We were pleased to see this view articulated by the Central Bank Governor Philip Lane recently. He stated that “cash buyers of property are limiting the ability of the Central Bank to control house prices through mortgage lending rules” he “singled out cash buyers as one of the key drivers of inflation in the Irish property market. Cash buyers used to account for about 25 per cent of house purchases in Ireland, but since the crash and ensuing credit crunch this figure has risen to 60 per cent“.

This is a point we have been making for years, firstly was that first time buyers are not, and have not been the problem. That was part of why we were specifically …

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TodayFM ‘The Last Word’ features Irish Mortgage Brokers

We were asked to take part in a segment called ‘Home Truths’ on TodayFM during the Last Word with Matt Cooper. The segment featured Karl Deeter and David Silke from the housing agency.

We were discussing the rental market and certain issues that go along with it, our main point is that there shouldn’t be a housing crisis, but that we managed to manufacture one.

The audio clip has the full segment on it.

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An opportunity for home owners amidst rising house prices

The average house price in Ireland has risen 11.2% over the past year, and prices in at least 8 counties are currently rising faster than that immediately preceding the market crash. Rapidly rising prices, low interest rates, and insufficient supply are together representative of the current situation in Ireland’s property market. Although this situation has many market watchers worried about possible inflation, and is definitely a hindrance to buyers still seeking for a home at an affordable price, there is a perk that could result for homeowners with an existing mortgage.

 

This blog post will illustrate this hidden opportunity and give homeowners the necessary knowledge if they intend to pursue it.

 

For homeowners with a high standard variable or fixed rate mortgage, your interest rate is most often based directly on your Loan-to-Value  ratio (LTV). The loan to value ratio is ratio of your loan to the value of your property. Each lending institution may have a different way of calculating and determining your interest rate but in general, the higher your LTV, the higher your interest rate. …

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Cash back deals: are banks manipulating borrowers?

The Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (CCPC) warned lenders last month about their use of cashback deals and loyalty discounts. The commission believes that such incentives may be detrimental to consumers and may reflect unhealthy competition in the mortgage market.

 

Cash back deals have become more and more common in the market in recent years. These deals work by giving borrowers a certain percentage of their total mortgage amount back at the start of their loan, and they mostly target first time buyers who may need the extra money on hand to furnish their homes or to tide them through a tough transitional time in life.

 

A quick look around the market reveals that major lenders, such as AIB, Ulster Bank, Bank of Ireland, EBS and KBC, all have similar cash back deals, mostly ranging from 2-3% or €1500-€2000. The catch on these loans however, is that interest rates on them are often higher than the average on traditional loans. This means that over the term of the loan, extra interest paid  may turn out to be much …

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Shadow mortgage lending in Hong Kong

Property prices have been booming in Hong Kong over the past couple of years, and have yet to reflect any slowdown. While various governmental regulations have attempted to curb growth, a closer look at Hong Kong’s mortgage market reveals that shadow lenders are rapidly gaining ground. These mortgage lenders operate outside of financial regulations and have become the option of many buyers as more limits are placed by the Central Bank on traditional forms of financing.

 

Shadow lending describes private lending performed by institutions that are not tradition banks. These institutions can be financial intermediaries or other lenders and provide similar services as banks. These institutions do not necessarily create instability in the financial system, and can be greatly beneficial by offering financing to buyers in a time where restrictions on tradition banks are tight. However, these institutions lie outside the control of official regulatory institutions, thus their lending practices may be at greater risk if a financial downturn were to happen.

 

In most countries, the major of home loans are still made out by traditional banks, and …

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Proportion of buyers with mortgages surpass those who buy in cash in first time since market crash

Recent data reveals that the percentage of home buyers with mortgages have surpassed that of those who buy in cash. This is the first time this has happened since the property bubble and subsequent crash. On July 26th 2016, an Irish Independent/Real Estate Alliance survey reported that 60% of houses are bought with cash, now, roughly a year later, the same survey concluded that less than 30% of homes are purchased by cash buyers.

 

During the years after the housing crash, the high percentages of cash buyers was caused by higher interest rates, stricter restrictions on lending, higher rates of unemployment, and the large amount of speculators purchasing properties as assets after the original home owners have defaulted on their loans. This indicated a general distrust in the market and the squeezing out of mortgage buyers who have defaulted on their homes.

 

Central Bank economist Dermot Coates predicted in 2016 that the proportion of cash buyers was “neither sustainable nor likely to continue into the future”. …

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Bank of England limits consumer lending & borrowing

Bank of England has voiced concerns over the increasing level of consumer credit in the UK, and has instituted various restrictions on banks regarding capital buffers, mortgage lending requirements and stress testing.

 

Levels of consumer debt have been rising rapidly, well beyond the rise in income, and bank lending has facilitated it’s growth. Since last April, personal lending has increased by 7% and credit card loans have risen by 9%.

 

The central bank expressed concerns in its most recent financial stability report that lends have grown used to benign economic conditions, and thus have loosened their lending standards. The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee warned that though current risks to the financial system remains low, banks should still remain watchful for shocks that could be caused by economic downturns.

 

It has asked banks to increase their capital by £11.4 billion over the next 18 months, thus having a greater buffer if an economic downturn causes a shock to occur, and …

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