Sunday Business Post: More haste less speed in the mortgage crisis

Angela Keegan of MyHome.ie wrote an opinion piece in the Sunday Business Post yesterday which included some of our firms commentary:

Figures compiled by Karl Deeter at Irish Mortgage Brokers showed that the size of the average first-time buyer mortgage peaked in the first quarter of 2008, at €251,000.

At the moment, the average drawdown is €188,000. According to Deeter, the ‘average mortgage’ from 2008 on a 2.1 per cent tracker costs €1,076 per month. Current TRS is €80 per month, so the net cost is €996.With the new, bigger TRS in the Programme for Government, the TRS will now be €119, resulting in a monthly payment of €957, an extra saving of €39 per month.

Compare that to the new first-time buyers, who will miss out on TRS. If they take out a loan for €188,000 at 4.3 per cent variable, their cost per month is €1,023.With rates likely to push up over 5 per cent, irrespective of the ECB, Deeter believes that, by this time next year, the divergence between the two mortgages could be as much as …

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TV3 Morning Show featureing Irish Mortgage Brokers and MyHome.ie

TV3 The Morning Show with Sybil and Martin from Irish Mortgage Brokers on Vimeo.

We were delighted to feature on TV3’s ‘Morning Show with Sybil and Martin’ on their monthly property slot alongside Angela Keegan from MyHome.ie

In the piece we discussed the property market as well as the financial side of it and how changes to both interest rates and taxation changes could affect buyers in the future.

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Bank cost of funds versus mortgage prices

Eurodollar or LIBOR cost of funds is a common phrase in banking, what does it mean or do though?

Banks borrow short term and lend out long term, they call it ‘maturity transformation’ and in doing so they aim to make a mark up on the money, it’s the same concept that a shop uses in selling cartons of milk, fundamentally the idea is the same.

The LIBOR rate is ‘London interbank offer rate’ and represents the cost of funds for a high quality non-governmental institutional borrower.

To get an idea of the cost of funds (and this is currently speculative because Irish banks don’t get offered funds at Euribor [euro equivalent of Libor]) all you have to do is a simple calculation.

We know that banks tend to use three month money and that means that any calculation will always have the interest rate reduced by multiplying it by 90/360 (3 months = 90 days, and 360 = 1 year [I know that in real life 1 year is 365 days but that small change of 5 days gives …

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TV3 ‘The Morning Show with Sybil & Martin’ featuring Irish Mortgage Brokers 11th Jan 2011

We were delighted to be part of TV3’s ‘The Morning Show, with Sybil & Martin‘. We are fans of the show and enjoy the relaxed nature of the conversational commentary style they are so adept at. In this clip we spoke about the costs of finance and the potential removal of fixed rates, while Marian Finnegan (of SherryFitzgerald) covers housing, her background is in urban economics and she lectured at both NUIG and UL before moving to SherryFitzgerald. We hope you enjoy the clip.

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Mortgage Rescue Schemes, failed policy.

Internationally mortgage rescue schemes have been an abject failure from the perspective of using the success of their mission statement and intended scope as a gauge.

In researching this blog I spoke to representatives from The Association of Mortgage Intermediaries in the UK, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, and Loan Value Group, they all had similar sentiments on rescue schemes to date.

The ‘Homeowner Mortgage Scheme in the UK planned to help 42,000 borrowers when it was set up in early 2009, to date it has helped 34. That is less than 1:1000 of the intended group.

Mortgage Rescue Help was another plan in the UK, that was meant to assist about 6000 in the short term, the actual figure as of Q3 2010 was 629 or about 1:10 of the intended target group.

In the USA the ‘Home Affordable Mortgage Programme’  (HAMP) was aimed …

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Bond Bubble Looming, where does it end?

We have been talking about this for a while (28/01/09, 11/03/09, 23/04/09), it was a popular topic on this blog in 2009 but well covered and for that reason we have not revisited it much, but the alignment of the stars warrants a look at the symptoms of the disease because now they are ever more present than before. At this point we can see a clearer path; which is still leading to a bond bust destination.

It has also becoming a mainstream topic, recently it showed up in an article titled ‘Currency, the weapon of choice in a world of lower demand‘.

If something can’t happen it won’t, and what can’t happen is a world in which we see century bonds (bonds with 100yr terms) becoming commonplace, they will probably be (as is the benefit with all hindsight) the poster-boy of the …

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How ‘Shared Equity’ in an arrears cases would(n’t) work

This piece is a demonstration of the way in which a a bank will opt for ‘shared equity’ with a home owner who is in arrears as means to keeping them in the property. It is important to remember, the ‘big bad bank’ wants people to stay in a property with arrears, only during a strong upward cycle do they tend to repossess property rapidly. What you will see next is in effect, a legal accounting trick, and one which actually leverages the individual even more.

So the situation at the start shows the asset value versus the value of the underlying security (in fact it is a little more complicated than this but for the sake of explanation the property and asset are the same value). Then along comes a property crash (we had a banking crisis thrown in for good measure).

Now the borrower is 200% leveraged, or at 50% in negative equity (their …

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