Dublin property prices 2012-2013

This post is a guest blog by a person who doesn’t want to be named.

The two year period between January 2012 and December 2013 was a remarkable period in the movement of the prices of houses and apartments in Dublin. The period started in January 2012 with house prices dropping by -21.7% from a year earlier while apartments dropped slightly less at -18.4% and yet by the end of the period.

In December 2013 house prices were rising by 15.3% annually with apartments rising further to 20.8% annually. Another feature of this period was the manner in which the prices moved, with house prices steadily slowing down their annual decline all through 2012 and from January 2013 to December 2013 having continuous positive increases in annual prices.

However apartment prices showed a lot more volatility over the period entering positive territory in February 2013 when compared to a year earlier but dipping back into negative figures for the next three months with the result that it was June before apartment prices showed increases on the same month a year …

Read More

The Anton Savage Show: Anton speaks to Irish Mortgage Brokers

Anton had Karl Deeter on to discuss the proposed mortgage loan caps that were being discussed by the Central Bank. Our view is that something more nuanced was needed, thankfully, at the time of posting this we now know the details and they did opt for a more carefully balanced solution.

Read More

Newstalk: Lunchtime speaks to Irish Mortgage Brokers about ‘mortgage caps’

Jonathan Healy of Newstalk spoke to Karl Deeter about capping mortgage loan to values and loan to income amounts. This is a logically compelling idea but it won’t fix the supply shortage or necessarily prevent the problems we are told it will fix. It will also mean that about 2 in 3 first time buyers face an adverse effect that people who already bought didn’t have to deal with, namely that of trying to save up a 20% deposit.

Read More

How bad did we manage the mortgage crisis? Pretty bad, here’s Cormac Lucey on it

Cormac Lucey looked at the deplorable state of how we managed the mortgage crisis in the Sunday Times, the clippings are below.

The piece talks about the countless regulatory failures we have endured, and that we did this despite knowing there were better options available.

When you make it nigh impossible to do the right things, it’s no surprise that you get the wrong outcomes.

Read More

The Morning Show on TV3

This month the property-watch focused on Central Bank reports that property prices had overshot from 12-26% depending on the model used. This counter to conventional wisdom, so we chatted about this and other topics with Claire Brock, Martin King and Angela Keegan.

Read More

Allsops Auctions are back – This March

We spoke to Brian O’Donovan from TV3 News about the upcoming Allsop/Space auction in March. One property is listed at €7,500. Even if you priced the land at zero or used construction costs this property is undervalued because the actual materials that go into building it would cost more to purchase.

Obviously the idea of ‘value’ isn’t just about materials, it’s also about utility and for that reason the materials assembled (construction) in a certain location may make them somewhat worthless, but it is an interesting development to note.

Read More

How it’s done in the USA (Bank Regulation)

There are often calls for stricter regulation, in particular the idea that in the US they arrest people in banks with greater ease/faster (which is in itself not ‘regulation’ it is policing). Anyway, I thought it was worth mentioning that in the US it isn’t a ‘one Regulator fits all’, and that the problems we had in the past through division of regulatory responsibility [splitting Central Bank and Regulator] still exist there.

Below is a graph of how responsibility is divided out in America.

As you can see, the OCC takes care of national banks, then the very popular state & community bank sector is elsewhere. Taking State banks in particular, they either have access to the Federal Reserve or not, if they do they are SMB and the State Authority and Fed are the regulators, if not then they are SNMB and the State Authority and the FDIC are the regulators.

That is why you hear about the FDIC ‘going into banks’ – these are state banks that …

Read More