What is happening with interest rates, why, and what can you do?

What is happening with interest rates?

Interest rates rise and fall, we have been in a secular-ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) environment for quite some time and as people who subscribe to the monetarist school of thought, this would always lead to inflation which we are seeing now, albeit a fairly delayed response given how long this policy has been in place.

Why?

Not too long ago the yield curve was negative 20 years into the future such was the dismal outlook of markets for any level of inflation, but then you had a pandemic, the ‘great resignation’ and between labor and supply constraints along with monetary policy effects, there is inflation you haven’t seen in 40 years. Now the curve is negative only one year into the future and the price in the money markets has risen.

Just to clarify this, many mortgage providers get their money by buying it (you buy at X + interest rate and then ‘sell’ it to borrowers at X+margin [which is ideally above the price you bought it at]). In an oversimplified manner, …

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PTsb mortgage rate increases

PTsb have been fairly honest in the way they have handled their loan book over the last two years, unpopular too, however it is important to look at what they are doing, why they did it and what they will do next.

Their first mortgage rate increase came in July 2009 and it was an additional 0.5% on top of the existing variable rate mortgage. The second PTsb rate hike came at the end of January 2010 and was effective from the 1st of February 2010.

PTsb are not part of NAMA, they are benefiting by the guarantee (as are the likes of Postbank) but they are paying for that guarantee – and the only way they can continue operations without requiring an outright bailout is to increase rates, shrink their loan book and reduce costs. In that respect they are to be admired, they are doing what is necessary to remain a going concern.

The trend to watch for however, is that they will continue to increase rates, and their fixed rate offering will remain high, their ideal situation …

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