Spin me right round’ – some thoughts on IBF data

In statistics there are two key components, the first is the actual ‘data’ the second is the ‘inference’ or what the data actually means. If you saw that one summer was hotter than the last by collecting daily average temperatures that would have statistical significance, if on the other other hand you saw that July was 56% hotter than January then you’d be stating the obvious and your ‘inference’ would be laughable.

That we can see this when it comes to meteorology is obvious, and almost nobody would take such news as having any significance, but when it happens in finance it can go unchecked although Eamon Quinn at the Wall Street Journal caught the IBF out on their release which is about mortgage lending being ‘56% up this quarter’.

Here’s the actual quote they lead with ‘The latest figures from the IBF/PwC Mortgage Market Profile, published today, show that the number of new mortgages issued in Q2 2013 has increased by 56.1% on the previous quarter.’ And it …

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FSA Mortgage Lending Data published

While mortgage lending in the UK is not exactly of Irish interest, it is worth looking at to see the challenges that our nearest neighbours face and in some ways to see if their lending data is reflective of our own.

Today the Financial Services Authority (FSA) today published its latest Mortgage Lending Data for the United Kingdom covering the period Q3 2012.

Key statistics for Q3 2012 are as follows:

·The total value of outstanding loans at the end of Q3 was £1,227bn, an increase of 0.3% on last quarter.

·New advances in the quarter amounted to £40bn, a 7% increase on Q2 but 9% below Q3 last year.

·The overall average interest rate on new advances increased from 3.78% last quarter to 3.89% in Q3. There was an increase in the rates for both variable rate lending and for fixed rate lending.

·New commitments totalled £36bn in the quarter, down 10% from last quarter and 14% lower than in the same quarter of last year.

·Lending for house purchase accounted for the highest proportion of new advances seen …

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