We spoke to Ciara Kelly about the current property market and where we believe we are in the cycle. She was surprised to hear us say that we believed a crash was virtually an inevitability. There are myriad reason for property cycles and the routes to resolving them are politically unacceptable, for that reason we are confident we won’t avoid experiencing another one.
Property cycles have always been a source of fascination for me (KD) and it’s worth briefly mentioning where we are now and where we are likely to go.
In the past I have always said that there are two broadly distinct phases, the first is a post-crash recovery where you see prices come back then rise fairly quickly before stalling.
The ‘stall’ is a mid cycle phenomenon where due to prices having risen you see a lot of buyers back off or take stock of the position, the memory of ‘we saw something like this before’ is still there to haunt them.
After that you get into the second phase where the upward momentum recommences but this time, having seen that the stall was somewhat ‘false’ (in the sense that it is perceived that way, it doesn’t actually have to be that), prices rise up even quicker.
This is unexpected (to some) and evidence that you have to ‘get in’ on the game. It brings us to the second phase which is the classic ‘boom-bust’. This eventuality is inevitable in …
We were pleased to chat with Sean Moncrieff on his afternoon show on Newstalk 106. Karl told everybody in the office that his Newstalk ‘Bingo Card’ had finally reached completion after seven years (this was the last show he needed to get on to be on every show he could potentially appear on).