We were asked to take part in an interview on Primetime about house prices and whether or not they were starting to show signs of falling. Our view is that they will fall in time (probably in a damaging way) but that it won’t be soon because supply is still above demand and price indicators like rents are still rising. This is damaging for first time buyers and those stuck paying high rents.
Newstalk’s ‘Lunchtime’ with Ciara Kelly did a piece on new wealth statistics issued by the Central Bank which featured Karl Deeter from Irish Mortgage Brokers. It looked at the average wealth per person in Ireland and the point was made that property was a very large component of it. Other things that affect wealth were also discussed as well as some of the problems around using ‘averages’ to describe anything.
Disregarding the findings of all recent numbers and reports that have been recorded, Central Bank Governor Philip Lane is reported by the Oireachtas Finance Committee as saying that he is expecting house prices to fall over the upcoming 3 years.
This statement being a bold one as the figured recently released by the Central Statistics Office reports house prices to have rose in the previous month by nearly 13%.
Such a statement that if true, would be a drastic change in the housing market and would cause chaos among buyers and sellers as the stark difference between the two different scenarios.
Though Philip Lane cannot say for sure what the housing market will do in the coming years, he made his predictions based off of a few “headwinds” that are expected to be taking a hit to the market.
Specific events that many are expecting to cause a large backlash in the economy and the housing market are Brexit and the funding costs for banks.
If a negative outcome is to be the result of either of these, they should …
Matt Cooper had Karl Deeter (Irish Mortgage Brokers) and Tom Lyons (Sunday Business Post) on his show to discuss recent developments in housing and how rents are rapidly rising. The focus was very much solutions oriented and some interesting thoughts came out of the conversation, in particular on the area of accountability.
We were featured in today’s Irish Times on an article by Barry McCall asking ‘why do we have housing shortages’.
Our contribution is as follows: Karl Deeter of Irish Mortgage Brokers believes this is part of a global trend. “The mega-trend is that we are now living in a low-yield world,” he says. “Central banks are being forced to play both sides of the same table. Low interest rates cause asset prices to rise and the Central Bank is curtailing credit to prevent asset price rises. But there is an upward pressure on house prices despite this and it has been compounded by the earlier economic collapse which has led to supply disruption. These are trends that are bigger than any of us.”
While the Central Bank rules are undoubtedly playing a part in the problem, Deeter sees supply as equally, if not more, important and one factor here is planning laws. “Ireland has a particular problem when it comes to third-party property rights,” he argues. “Planning applications for housing developments are being turned down in areas where …
This picture speaks a thousand words and in many cases tens of thousands of earnings that a person would have to have in order to afford an average home in different parts of the country. We used recent data from the Daft report and then broke it down into borrowings and compared that to average wages.
The column after ‘county’ is the average price in that region. If we assume a first time buyer will typically want a 90% mortgage we then look at the amount of earnings they’d need to have in order to get the loan.
The last column is where the real story lies, it compares prices in the area to average wages taken from the CSO.
Anything in a white cell with a minus is very affordable, anything in black means you’d have to be earning above average wage to buy a property in the area.
If the cell has a red background that is showing you where the difference is greater than €10,000.
It’s fairly clear that cities and in some cases …
We were asked to discuss whether or not we have a property bubble at present in Dublin. We don’t have a ‘bubble’ but we do have a boom and booms often lead to bubbles so the time for action is now, not later.
Jonathan Healy spoke to Karl Deeter about the rapid house price appreciation in the nation in general and Dublin in particular.
The issue of too many constituencies all wanting different things came up as did some of the other aspects of the market, the main one of which is that we are showing the early symptoms of a housing crisis.
We were asked to speak to Audrey Carville on Drivetime (she’s covering for Mary Wilson) about property prices. This interview was highly enjoyable as we got to flesh out some complex ideas and taking the time to do it is not always available on live radio. See what you think of the analysis!
Economist Robert Schiller of ‘Case Schiller’ report fame says that he believes the housing market will fall further, confidence is everything in the property market and he says that confidence is at a record low and that is one of the primary reasons for his feelings on future prices. This makes for some interesting viewing, his book ‘The subprime solution’ and another called ‘Irrational exuberance’ are both excellent reads if you want to get a view on the current situation from a man who saw this coming. A vital point he makes is that avoiding additional supply is part of the solution.