Newstalk Lunchtime, Wealth per capita now higher than back in the boom, 11th September 2018

Newstalk’s ‘Lunchtime’ with Ciara Kelly did a piece on new wealth statistics issued by the Central Bank which featured Karl Deeter from Irish Mortgage Brokers. It looked at the average wealth per person in Ireland and the point was made that property was a very large component of it. Other things that affect wealth were also discussed as well as some of the problems around using ‘averages’ to describe anything.

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Possibilities of House Prices to Fall

Disregarding the findings of all recent numbers and reports that have been recorded, Central Bank Governor Philip Lane is reported by the Oireachtas Finance Committee as saying that he is expecting house prices to fall over the upcoming 3 years.

This statement being a bold one as the figured recently released by the Central Statistics Office reports house prices to have rose in the previous month by nearly 13%.

Such a statement that if true, would be a drastic change in the housing market and would cause chaos among buyers and sellers as the stark difference between the two different scenarios.

Though Philip Lane cannot say for sure what the housing market will do in the coming years, he made his predictions based off of a few “headwinds” that are expected to be taking a hit to the market.

Specific events that many are expecting to cause a large backlash in the economy and the housing market are Brexit and the funding costs for banks.

If a negative outcome is to be the result of either of these, they should …

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Irish Times mentions Irish Mortgage Brokers: Why is there a housing shortage?

We were featured in today’s Irish Times on an article by Barry McCall asking ‘why do we have housing shortages’.

Our contribution is as follows: Karl Deeter of Irish Mortgage Brokers believes this is part of a global trend. “The mega-trend is that we are now living in a low-yield world,” he says. “Central banks are being forced to play both sides of the same table. Low interest rates cause asset prices to rise and the Central Bank is curtailing credit to prevent asset price rises. But there is an upward pressure on house prices despite this and it has been compounded by the earlier economic collapse which has led to supply disruption. These are trends that are bigger than any of us.”

While the Central Bank rules are undoubtedly playing a part in the problem, Deeter sees supply as equally, if not more, important and one factor here is planning laws. “Ireland has a particular problem when it comes to third-party property rights,” he argues. “Planning applications for housing developments are being turned down in areas where …

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The unaffordability index of Irish housing

This picture speaks a thousand words and in many cases tens of thousands of earnings that a person would have to have in order to afford an average home in different parts of the country. We used recent data from the Daft report and then broke it down into borrowings and compared that to average wages.

The column after ‘county’ is the average price in that region. If we assume a first time buyer will typically want a 90% mortgage we then look at the amount of earnings they’d need to have in order to get the loan.

The last column is where the real story lies, it compares prices in the area to average wages taken from the CSO.

Anything in a white cell with a minus is very affordable, anything in black means you’d have to be earning above average wage to buy a property in the area.

If the cell has a red background that is showing you where the difference is greater than €10,000.

It’s fairly clear that cities and in some cases …

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Newstalk: Jonathan Healy talks to Irish Mortgage Brokers about rapid price rises

Jonathan Healy spoke to Karl Deeter about the rapid house price appreciation in the nation in general and Dublin in particular.

The issue of too many constituencies all wanting different things came up as did some of the other aspects of the market, the main one of which is that we are showing the early symptoms of a housing crisis.

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RTE Drivetime, Audrey Carville talks to Karl Deeter about the CSO house price increase

We were asked to speak to Audrey Carville on Drivetime (she’s covering for Mary Wilson) about property prices. This interview was highly enjoyable as we got to flesh out some complex ideas and taking the time to do it is not always available on live radio. See what you think of the analysis!

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House prices in the near term: Robert Schiller

Economist Robert Schiller of ‘Case Schiller’ report fame says that he believes the housing market will fall further, confidence is everything in the property market and he says that confidence is at a record low and that is one of the primary reasons for his feelings on future prices. This makes for some interesting viewing, his book ‘The subprime solution’ and another called ‘Irrational exuberance’ are both excellent reads if you want to get a view on the current situation from a man who saw this coming. A vital point he makes is that avoiding additional supply is part of the solution.

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New trends in underwriting and credit

It is 2009 and one of the things we need to look at (at least from the mortgage market perspective) is the availability of credit. Many associations such as ISME and politicians such as Joan Burton have voiced strong opinion on the need for credit to be extended to small businesses. The same credit contraction is happening in lending for property.

While our firm, and almost everybody involved in the mortgage market accept that we are not at market clearing levels, the unavailability of credit for those who do wish to buy and are capable repaying their loans is going to cause an unnecessary distortion which will drive prices down further than is rational. Without getting too deeply into the reason for the credit contraction/deleveraging process which we have covered many times here before, the point of interest is the new brand of underwriting we are likely to see.

In the past people within the financial industry were looked upon favourably, not only due to the fact that they normally represented a …

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