The great Irish deleveraging

This is like the Great Irish Bake-off but all about delevaging, Central Bank economists Reamonn Lydon and Tara McIndoe-Calder put together an excellent paper (05/RT/2017)on the topic, the full technical paper is here.

Our condensed and plain English version is below:

ABSTRACT The authors drew on the 2013 household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) to stimulate household balance sheets form 2005 to 2014 for the purposes of investigating household leveraging and deleveraging during this period. The paper shows that deleveraging has proceeded significantly faster with older households as opposed to younger ones. With younger borrowers, tracker mortgages have eased the debt repayment burden in the presence of large income shocks. All in all, income shocks are the main factor contributing to mortgage repayment problems.

INTRODUCTION From the early 2000s through to the peak of the property boom in 2007, rapid increases in leverage ratios and repayment burdens far outstripped growth in disposable income, leaving households exceptionally vulnerable to the economic shock of 2008. One result of the crisis was the large increase in non-preforming mortgage loans. …

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