The next movement of the ECB

The ECB has always had inflation, or more accurately the ‘control of inflation’ as its only guiding light. The ECB raised rates by 0.25% on the 3rd of July and now it is time to wait and watch, to see what they will do next. While we don’t possess a crystal ball what we can do is take a brief look at the world and how some market movements may shape the next meeting of the ECB.

We are (worldwide) in an inflationary environment, in Vietnam inflation is at 25%! The highest it has been since the Vietnam War. The government there is trying to stop the importation of gold, because the Vietnamese have surpassed both China and India in the levels of gold consumption, in the first quarter of 2008 they imported over 38 tonnes. Why is this happening, and what does it have to do with the ECB?

The ‘Dong‘ is a fiat currency that was born in 1978, after the war, the currency that existed prior to that the French …

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ECB Base rate increased 0.25% to 4.25% today

The ECB (European Central Bank) changed its base rate today to 4.25% which is an increase of 0.25%, the previous base rate of 4% had been left unchanged since its inception in June of 2007.

The move, while not favoured by borrowers, is vital in order to control Eurozone inflation which has been running well above the ‘at or just below 2%’ level that the ECB has intended to adhere to. In the first quarter of the year many commentators were saying that they believed we would see a rate reduction in the summer, this blog on the other hand argued otherwise in articles which were posted in mid March and again in mid April. As recently as May professional commentators (our crew is more along the line of humble observers!) …

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Auction Rate Bond Market feels the pinch

There has been unforseen intervention by the US Fed in the American markets, however there is still a domino effect, today we saw that there was a problem with the Auction Rate Bond Market and it has culminated in an investigation by nine state regulators.

It was said in the past that the Auction Rate market was dead after Wall Street banks ceased to purchase their own unwanted bonds, Auction Rate Securities are not liquid and this has resulted in the above case which broke in the news today. Investors were lead to believe that the bonds were a ‘cash equivalent’ however they are not, and the regulator is pushing to over rule the bonds because if money was to be seen as cash going in it has to be treated as cash on the way out (i.e.: it can’t be tied into conditions).

Auction Rate Bonds allow issuers such as Governments, Hospitals and Municipalities to issue …

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The ECB won’t cut rates? A central bank doing exactly what it should.

The Fed is still trying to bail out the US economy, there must be a fundamental belief there that a recession is the worst thing in the world. Personally I would feel that the 1,000,000 lives lost in Iraq outweigh the damage a recession might do but for some reason the efforts to end the war pale in comparison to what politicians and policy makers are willing to do to avoid an economic downturn.

Bear Stearns was bought for $2 a share by JP Morgan Chase, their stock price was about $38 recently, and the money to do the bailout was Fed backed. In fact the Fed is evoking laws designed during the great depression to lend direct to banks.

The USA has recession aversion, it’s almost like the economy there is one giant dog dry heaving to Pavlov’s recession bell. The issue is that the budget still has to be met, these bailouts cost money and the money …

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The ECB won't cut rates? A central bank doing exactly what it should.

The Fed is still trying to bail out the US economy, there must be a fundamental belief there that a recession is the worst thing in the world. Personally I would feel that the 1,000,000 lives lost in Iraq outweigh the damage a recession might do but for some reason the efforts to end the war pale in comparison to what politicians and policy makers are willing to do to avoid an economic downturn.

Bear Stearns was bought for $2 a share by JP Morgan Chase, their stock price was about $38 recently, and the money to do the bailout was Fed backed. In fact the Fed is evoking laws designed during the great depression to lend direct to banks.

The USA has recession aversion, it’s almost like the economy there is one giant dog dry heaving to Pavlov’s recession bell. The issue is that the budget still has to be met, these bailouts cost money and the money …

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China might have the muscle but where are the brains?

I wrote about inflation in china before and how it might affect their economic growth, in fact it may prove to be their economic Achilles heel.

now the BBC have reported that the Chinese Government has come up with a novel way of curbing inflation (get a reporter from the Economist & FT over there quick!). They will fine retailers if they raise their prices… What ingenuity! Why didn’t somebody think of this before? I wonder if they will also fine them for not having any stock after they become unable to purchase anything because they will not be able to make any mark up on it?

Here’s the scenario:Mr. Chang buys pork for €5 and would normally sell for 6 or 7, but now pork costs 6 or 7, he can’t mark this up, so Mr. Chang stops selling pork, that doesn’t mean demand disappears, it means demand will actually rise due to scarcity and will result in demand pull inflation. The Chinese Government probably didn’t think of that aspect …

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Inflation in China 2007

In an article written last week called ‘whats all the fuss about the US dollar’ a point was mentioned regarding the fall of the Dollar and its affect on China’s economy, one of the things mentioned was the inflationary pressure that China will feel when a weak dollar means stronger currencies can purchase more and more commodities like oil.

layman interpretation: Oil is priced in US Dollars, so if the dollar gets weak (eg: at the moment we have a strong euro – so if you went to New York for christmas shopping you could get more for less) then oil becomes cheaper to buy, because everybody needs oil the stronger currencies will be readily able to purchase more and this drives up the price of oil because of demand. China needs oil and almost everything else to continue with growth and as they hold massive dollar reserves there is a twofold action taking place. Firstly their national reserves (in dollars) is worth less, so maybe thats why the Sovereign wealth fund of China is making moves to bail out …

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