Irish Economy Poised for Huge Rebound as Restrictions are Lifted

Consumer and Business sentiment is growing in Ireland following the loosening of covid restrictions. 

 

For May 2021, the Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse, a metric that combines the result of the Business and Consumer pulses, came in at 89.5. This is 4.1 points higher than last month, and 45.6 higher than a year ago. This is the fourth straight month that the Economic Pulse has increased, and it comes after a series of covid-19 related restrictions were loosened or lifted. In May, restrictions on social interactions were lifted, and several sectors emerged, at least partially, from lockdown. These sectors include the remainder of construction, personal services, and non-essential retail (by appointment only), with many other sectors getting ready to re-open. 

 

This rising sentiment, combined with the expectation that lockdown measures will be loosened further in the coming months, has brought the Economic Pulse Index back above its pre-pandemic levels for the first time. This has led Bank of Ireland to revise its GDP forecast to 5.8%, up from its earlier estimate of 5%.  

 

The Housing market …

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Housing Update and the Coronavirus

At the beginning of the year, Glenveagh Property, an Irish home building company, had shares increase by over 2%. The shares rose due to an increase in house sales and company revenue in 2019. The company achieved these increases because they had significant sales of homes for first-time buyers, where there still remains a high demand. Glenveagh Property reports the company generated revenues of €284 million, which presents an 240% increase from 2019 to 2020. In addition, the company had a 200% increase in homes built from 2019 to 2020, stating the company built 844 new homes. Finally, the company reports that they have reduced its risk in its 2020 construction targets. 

While Glenveagh Property’s positive report for the year of 2019 and hopeful outlook for 2020 are optimistic signs, the housing market may continue to grow with an improvement of the Coronavirus. On Tuesday, 11 February 2020, Zhong Nanshan, the head of China’s National Health Commission team investigating the Coronavirus, stated in an interview that the infectious virus may be over in April of 2020. Nanshan said the disease …

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Institutional Investors not to Blame

Institutional investors have commonly been credited with causing the rise in property prices. However, stockbroker Davy, claims otherwise and says they are not to blame. The report by Davy credits the inflation in house prices to be caused by the Bank of Ireland’s strict mortgage-lending rules. The pressure on the housing market has caused many people to become interested in the rental market causing pressure there too and a 7% rise in rentals.

Institutional investment has been rising exponentially in Ireland. It has grown in sales to a total of 1.1 billion Euros in 2018 up 200 million Euros from the previous year. These figures may seem high, but only account for 30% of total property investments in 2018 and do not have a big enough impact on the market to make a tremendous impact. Additionally, most of those investment occurred in Dublin where the top 25 transactions account for 2,370 units worth 954 million Euros in 2018.

Davy analyst Conall Mac Coille commented, “People have, however, confused the chicken with the egg,” and “Institutional investors have been attracted here …

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Cuckoo Funds

Cuckoo Funds has been recently used to describe big investors. Some of the main investors that comprise of the cuckoo funds are large institutional investors like pension funds, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and special private rental firms. These investors pour money into developments that cannot be purchased by the average individual or family. The developments funded by “cuckoo funds” are classified as build-to-rent. Investors are increasingly interested in attempting to tap into the growing demand for Irelands rental market.

These cuckoo funds are named accordingly because they have been seen to push first time buyers out of the market. Cuckoo funds have had significant impacts on investors and buyers in the market.

Benefits to the large investors can be defined by the ability to build apartments that do not have restrictions on maximum number of apartments per floor. Another benefit for a developer willing to invest in build to rent is that they are allowed flexibility in comparison to other developments in regard to amenities and storage. These cuckoo funds are also seen as controversial due to favorable …

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Irish Housing Market Full of Problems

Problems have been arising with mortgage interest rates in Ireland for quite some time now.  As there has been a worsened housing market and much conflict has arisen from it, the uncertainty of many different aspects have come to arise.

Many banks have had to make competitive advances in the market just to stay relative and appealing to their customers. The housing market has simply become a game in Ireland.

Without constant changing rates, their appeal would diminish, in turn, causing a fall in their overall customer base. A rapid decline in business would quickly be seen.

Most recently, Ulster Bank announced more drastic cuts to their interest rates that would, in turn, also affect their fixed rate mortgage offerings. This was done as a way to stay competitive as many other primary banks for lending have been recently seen as doing similar things.

The Irish housing market is offering customers some of the highest variable rates accessible across the eurozone. Ireland’s average variable rate stands at 3.37% while the rest of the eurozone has an average of just 1.8%. …

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Alternative Reason for the Rise in Home Prices

As we track the Irish mortgage market, the soaring prices are blamed much on the shortage in supply alongside a growing demand.

The law of supply and demand dictate much of what happens in the economy and the many financial phenomena in which are seen.

This, being a large reason as to why the supply and demand law is being blamed for much of what is happening in the Irish housing market today.

To do an analysis on what actually caused the flawed market that there is today, it is important to study the market as it was in 2006. The market boom before the bust.

In 2006, home construction was at peak levels, with nearly 90,000 homes built. With a population of just around four million, that is an impressive number for home production to occur.

This, however, is where the law of supply and demand began to become of question.

As homes were on the rise and an increase in supply was seen, prices continued to rise as well. The opposite of what the supply and demand law …

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Renting Becoming Impossible

Renting in Ireland is an extraordinary and surprisingly busy sector to be involved in.  A sector that is shrinking at an exceptional rate. But only by individual growing…not by choice.

Recent surveys actually show that the number of available rental properties are at the lowest they have been in recorded history, while at the same time, less than one-third of people renting their homes are renting by choice.

The majority of individuals in rental properties are in it because they either can not afford the mortgage on available homes or have been denied social housing.

Renting is at best, the third choice.

The burden on individuals and families of paying rent also causes for a demanding financial pressure to be put on these renters as ⅓-½ of their paycheck is often seen taken by rent expenses.

Making it a difficulty for individuals to even get into the renting sector as a large portion of their income will essentially be given up.

However, it’s even increasingly difficult for someone looking to branch out of the renting sector to save the allocated …

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What the Numbers Mean for those Looking to Buy

Ireland as a whole is eagerly waiting for each month to come, and new statistics to be published. Statistics in regards to the housing market and what can be expected by the next months’ forecasts.

It is with eager thoughts that positive reports mean future gains and future gains mean economic development and of course, citizens of Ireland to get into their homes.

A country with many living in a distressed state as they give up their dreams of home ownership or settle for someplace they simply don’t want, these reports sit a little heavy.

With every new reported couple/persons in the home buyer cluster there comes a story as to why they aren’t following their initial plans.

Maybe they can’t afford their dream home, the supply of homes isn’t available in their price range, or they gave up after years of looking to move into a one bedroom apartment, costing the same amount as a small home. The overlapping theme, unfulfilled.

Most individuals are hoping for the stats to tell them that the country is …

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Start-up to Cause Shift in Housing Market

As I have previously written, the Irish housing market is currently experiencing a great crisis. With nearly no answers, the public is scrambling to find a way out, a way to the surface of all this financial distress.

This is where the Irish start-up Moove comes into play.

They’re entering the market with a goal to disrupt the market and give buyers and seller more choices and control during the sale of a home.

Yet to fully enter the Irish market, they are basing and forecasting the success of their business on the hybrid online model, currently based in the UK.

This model is currently offering sellers savings up to 7,200 euro!

Founder of Moove, David Madden started his career at the age of 17 as an estate agent at his parent’s business.

Having worked in the real estate business for many years, he has great potential in the start-up of such an inventive company.

Moove is designed to provide the same services one would find from a regular real estate agent, starting at a base cost of 1,800 euro.

…

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Irish Housing Market Trends

Ireland has seen a hit take place in recent years as property market seems to be downsizing. Families, with two full-time working partners, are finding it difficult to afford houses at their current increasing costs.

It has even been reported by Mark Keenan, a writer for business property and mortgages that working families are struggling to rent as well.

The average working couple in Ireland is earning a combined income of 70,000 euros. This is far below what a couple needs to earn to afford a home today.

It is reported that the average home in Dublin is now priced at mid 400,000 levels. Much more than what the average working couple could afford.

In just the last three months, there has been a multiple week increase to sell a home in Dublin. The housing market is slowing down and it’s slowing down fast.

Why is it that homes are being put on the market for such high prices? It could be that those selling the homes are finding it hard to sell for less …

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