Possibilities of House Prices to Fall

Disregarding the findings of all recent numbers and reports that have been recorded, Central Bank Governor Philip Lane is reported by the Oireachtas Finance Committee as saying that he is expecting house prices to fall over the upcoming 3 years.

This statement being a bold one as the figured recently released by the Central Statistics Office reports house prices to have rose in the previous month by nearly 13%.

Such a statement that if true, would be a drastic change in the housing market and would cause chaos among buyers and sellers as the stark difference between the two different scenarios.

Though Philip Lane cannot say for sure what the housing market will do in the coming years, he made his predictions based off of a few “headwinds” that are expected to be taking a hit to the market.

Specific events that many are expecting to cause a large backlash in the economy and the housing market are Brexit and the funding costs for banks.

If a negative outcome is to be the result of either of these, they should …

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Volatile Housing Prices in the Irish Market

Ireland housing price inflation has come to be of large concern to the public as a wider gap of the housing market will likely develop. Currently, central bank lending rules have been established and are beginning to be implemented as a way to slow the rate at which it is increasing.

Housing prices are still on the rise, as they have been in many recent reportings throughout the nation in current times. With tighter bank lending now being enforced more and more at a national level, the rate of inflation throughout Ireland has been seen to finally begin to slow down.

The second quarter of 2018 reported by MyHome.ie showed a steep increase in home prices alongside the slowest pace of inflation to be recorded in over two years.

The steep prices of homes have for a while now, been on the watch by the nation as a housing shortage has been of strong concern, affecting the living standard of many citizens throughout the nation.

As asking price inflation has slowed dramatically, Dublin has been feeling some of the effects.

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Mortgage market update in the UK

The mortgage market in the UK after Brexit was announced has been shaky. With everyone not knowing how Brexit will turn out, they are weary of committing to huge financial obligations.

However, the UK mortgage market is starting to see potential buyers increase again. In May, a total of 121,464 mortgages were completed.

Total mortgage loans increased by £3.5 billion, which is the fastest pace in more than a year. Mortgage lending has increased 2.9 percent in the past year. The prediction for next years growth is 2 percent in 2017.

The slowdown in growth we can see come from the Brexit. The value of the Sterling dropping makes customers reluctant to purchase a house. This has very negatively affected the housing market in the UK.

The consumer credit card and personal loan debts have been on the rise as well. This is also causing worry from the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee as consumer credit continues to rise.

More regulations are going to be put in place to slow down the lending growth and another measure to be …

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What about small radical housing plans?

In speaking with several people within industry I have come across the same idea a few time, to the extent that the thought has occupied my mind and turned into this article.

The idea is that experimentation is part of progress, but that we rarely experiment with housing, in particular we rarely experiment with the ‘how’ of  it. Historically it has taken calamitous events to make changes, for instance, the timber and plaster construction of Tudor homes was replaced by the brick and stone of Georgian construction only after large fires and events like the Great Gunpowder Disaster of 1597 in Dublin.

So what if we did the following: take a single street in Dublin, Cork and Galway, ideally one which is fairly ruined (there are many) and we said that for this one street that people could do whatever they wanted in terms of building anything they felt was appropriate or what they wanted to do.

That might mean you have a four storey house next to some shipping container apartments or some other weird mix, but we could …

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Where we are in the property cycle and what to expect next

Property cycles have always been a source of fascination for me (KD) and it’s worth briefly mentioning where we are now and where we are likely to go.

In the past I have always said that there are two broadly distinct phases, the first is a post-crash recovery where you see prices come back then rise fairly quickly before stalling.

The ‘stall’ is a mid cycle phenomenon where due to prices having risen you see a lot of buyers back off or take stock of the position, the memory of ‘we saw something like this before’ is still there to haunt them.

After that you get into the second phase where the upward momentum recommences but this time, having seen that the stall was somewhat ‘false’ (in the sense that it is perceived that way, it doesn’t actually have to be that), prices rise up even quicker.

This is unexpected (to some) and evidence that you have to ‘get in’ on the game. It brings us to the second phase which is the classic ‘boom-bust’. This eventuality is inevitable in …

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Today FM, Irish Mortgage Brokers feature on ‘The Last Word’ with Matt Cooper

We were pleased to be part of a discussion with Matt Cooper (Today FM) and Kevin Doyle (political editor at The Independent) on the topic of housing on The Last Word.

The analysis we provided was to make the point that help to buy cannot possibly be behind house price increases across the nation. We also made the point that prices would have risen even without it and that you need to look at the secular trend not just the short term ones.

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RTE Primetime spoke to Irish Mortgage Brokers about lending caps

Robert Shortt from RTE’s Primetime show spoke to us about the Central Bank idea of putting caps on lending in terms of the loan to value and the loan to income ratios. There is a sense in this, but we don’t believe such a crude instrument is nuanced enough to negate the downsides that such a policy brings with it. There are better ways to do this and they should be explored.

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KFM: Housing shortages, Clem speaks to Irish Mortgage Brokers

We were asked to speak to Clem on KFM radio about the issue of housing shortages and why they happen as well as what can be done about it. We showed that it isn’t just Dublin, that some areas in Kildare are also experiencing the same problem.

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RTE: Property bubbles discussed by Brian Lucey and Karl Deeter

Keelin Shanley was sitting in for Sean O’Rourke on the Today Show on RTE Radio 1. She had Brian Lucey and Karl Deeter on the show to discuss the issues with the property market in Ireland and in Dublin in particular where prices rose 22% in the last year.

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Newstalk: Jonathan Healy talks to Irish Mortgage Brokers about rapid price rises

Jonathan Healy spoke to Karl Deeter about the rapid house price appreciation in the nation in general and Dublin in particular.

The issue of too many constituencies all wanting different things came up as did some of the other aspects of the market, the main one of which is that we are showing the early symptoms of a housing crisis.

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