U.S Housing Market since ’08

It’s been ten years since the U.S. housing market crashed and caused many banks to close their doors and many people to lose their homes.

The question today is, has the market recovered? It depends on where you look….it is predicted that the market will have fully recovered by 2025, says Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist.

When predicting the recovery of the housing market, it is vital that you keep in mind the key factor of location.

Housing development varies greatly from state to state and it is places like California where we see a complete recovery in some areas and little to no recovery in others.

Such a large range between close by spaces is due to factors such as the city’s overall well-being. By this, I mean population growth and job outlook.

When a community is expanding and working within its own limits it is inevitable that different areas in the community will also look up, such as the housing market.

When developing the statistics in assessing the recovery of the housing market we compare current data to pre-recession …

Read More

Behavioral Economics & Arrears – avoid repossession by reward

I had an interesting conversation with Frank Pallotta of Loan Value Group in New Jersey earlier today. Loan Value Group is an organisation that was set up to help avoid foreclosures, they use the expertise of behavioural economists from Wharton, mortgage finance experts, mortgage advisers, and consumer marketing experts, to work with lenders at risk of strategic default and likely default.

There are really only two classifications of borrowers in difficulty, those who can’t pay and those who won’t pay – Loan Value Group can both identify and work with either cohort.

We share a common view on principle reduction, Loan Value Group’s opinion is that ‘blind principle reduction’ is very negative, it addresses the consumers balance sheet, but from a working point of view for every other stakeholder its a mess. And if people are willing to lie for a 0.5 to 1% – reduction in rate then imagine the incentive if there was 10k or more in principle reduction? Therefore, we need solutions that don’t disadvantage the …

Read More

Negative Equity Financing

I was on the panel on Frontline recently and during it I mentioned a thing called ‘Negative Equity Financing’, we were asked by a few journalists and some clients about it, so hopefully this post will help to clear up what it is, and how it may work.

For a start, I’m anti-bailouts, in general and in particular, so debt forgiveness is not really something you’ll  see supported here, but we are big believers in facilitation, and any means that can help to oil the cogs is likely better than one that tries to create a new machine – albeit in time that is what we need; changes to our property and debt laws. However, in the here and now facilitation is quicker and easier to implement and has a better chance of reaching those it is intended for.

Negative Equity Financing is the idea we have put forward, but it isn’t just a case of doing a short sale because that doesn’t work in Ireland.

A short …

Read More

The ‘Crunch’ is nearly over, but what lies in its wake?

The Euribor 3 month money is at 2.822% which means the margin on interbank money is now at 0.322% (the current base rate is 2.5%) over the base. The Credit Crunch by definition is a sudden reduction in the general availability of loans (or credit) or a sudden tightening of the conditions required to obtain a loan from the banks. One of the biggest hallmarks of the whole financial crisis was the disjointed relationship of the Euribor from the ECB.

Traditionally the Euribor (we are talking about the 3 month money generally) trailed the ECB at c. 0.1 to 0.2%, so if the ECB base rate was 4% then the Euribor was (approximately) 4.13% or something like that. In July of 2007 this all changed and margins on interbank lending shot through the roof, to such an extent that literally thousands of loans in Ireland alone turned into negative …

Read More

The 'Crunch' is nearly over, but what lies in its wake?

The Euribor 3 month money is at 2.822% which means the margin on interbank money is now at 0.322% (the current base rate is 2.5%) over the base. The Credit Crunch by definition is a sudden reduction in the general availability of loans (or credit) or a sudden tightening of the conditions required to obtain a loan from the banks. One of the biggest hallmarks of the whole financial crisis was the disjointed relationship of the Euribor from the ECB.

Traditionally the Euribor (we are talking about the 3 month money generally) trailed the ECB at c. 0.1 to 0.2%, so if the ECB base rate was 4% then the Euribor was (approximately) 4.13% or something like that. In July of 2007 this all changed and margins on interbank lending shot through the roof, to such an extent that literally thousands of loans in Ireland alone turned into negative …

Read More