Nassim Taleb, a well known professor, economist and risk management adviser talks about the failure of allowing failure, that we are not witnessing ‘change’ in the banking system, rather just a changing the guard. His points are valid and thought provoking, I also find myself unable to disagree with him too readily.
An interesting talk on the Charlie Rose show with Nouriel Roubini, Mark Zandi, Fred Mishkin and Nina Easton.
At just after 6 minutes Nina Easton makes an interesting point: No fiscal policy ever changed an economy, would this be going on the record saying Keynesian economics were not the cause of the end of the Great Depression? The other economists present didn’t disagree.
Jim Rogers talks to Sir David Frost about the role of Government and Central Banks in the current crisis, he believes that the ethos of ‘not letting anybody fail’ actually magnifies problems because doing this means the bubble continues to inflate far beyond the size it would have done otherwise.
Jim has a very simple and straightforward way of explaining things that make him ever popular, although some of the medicine he prescribes is considered quite harsh. His point about letting the market do what it must is of the libertarian strain and for all anybody knows, he may be right (right as in ‘correct’ not as in ‘wing’), if so then everything being done to counteract the crisis is the inverse of what we should be doing.
Today I am taking out the crystal ball, and asking it if these final weeks of December 2008 and the start of January 09′ are the tipping point of the greatest bear market since the 1930’s. The recession is huge, there has been billions in wealth wiped out, we passed the one trillion mark last month, the total is expected to be over 1.5 trillion USD in total.
The question is, how low will the path of this bear market go? [note: this is about the stock market and not the Irish property market] Central banks around the world are chopping rates, forming bailout packages and doing all possible to get the economy back on track. Today we will consider some of the reasons that we may be actually seeing the start of a tipping point.
I believe the trend will be that we saw what amounted to the greatest financial crash in modern history in nominal terms. The fallout in Q4 only escaped the ‘crash’ moniker (but ‘worldwide financial crisis’ doesn’t exactly have a …
With news coming in that repossessions are rising it is an opportune time to give our readers a few ideas of what you can do should you find yourself in difficulty. Repossession is always a last resort for a lender, they will generally not come out of the deal profitably, the person who bought the property will also come out a loser with a bad credit history to boot.
So what should you do if you think you may be have problems with your mortgage? First and foremost you need to contact your lender straight away once you feel there is a problem, ignoring the issue is the worst thing you can do because it means you will be passing by viable options and could arrive at a point where they no longer exist with the double whammy of still having problems, problems which will only escalate if not resolved.