Unemployment rate falls towards 6%

New figures released by the Central Statistics Office show that the current rate of unemployment is 6.3%, the lowest it has ever been since the market crash. This rate is 2% lower than that recorded in June of 2016 and the exact number of workers who are listed as unemployed fell by 42,100 during this time.

 

The current rate of unemployment in Ireland is 3% lower than the EU average, reflecting this country’s incredible economic progress in the past few years. Although the unemployment rate is still higher than that in countries like Germany and the Netherlands, experts predict that the steady downward trend will continue.

 

Furthermore, Ireland has an unique advantage in its ability to better integrate immigrants into the work force. The unemployment rate for foreign nationals in Ireland stood at just 7.7% last month, when they are much higher across the rest of Europe.

 

Economist Mariano Mamertino believes that “Ireland remains on a clear trajectory for unemployment to …

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What Brexit Means for the Irish Economy: a pro and a con

With UK Prime Minister Theresa May failing to win a majority in elections last week, the fate of Brexit negotiations have become even more up in the air. It is likely that she will be forced to give concessions the opposition, and thus take a softer stance on the terms of Brexit. Despite the specifics of the negotiation still being uncertain, it has become obvious that the Irish Economy will be hurt by declining trade with the UK and will at the same time benefit from the relocation of multinational corporations from the UK to Ireland.

The UK is one of the top destinations for Irish exports. In 2015, 12% of Irish exports went to the UK, valuing at $12.9 billion. However, Brexit will force terms of trade between the UK and Ireland to be re-examined. While Ireland will definitely try it’s best to keep trade with the UK as open as possible, with declining consumer spending in the UK and the falling price of the pound to the euro, Irish goods …

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Is the Black Market all bad? A talk on deviant globalization

Author Nils Gilman argues that black markets may not be a negative from every perspective. “If you like entrepreneurship, if you like innovation,” says Gilman, “then you’ve got to love deviant globalization.” Gilman notes that the narcotics industry in Mexico directly employees 400,000 people – more than finance or oil.

There is some great research being done on the black market, in Ireland Karen Mayor is working on a paper on the topic.

Deviant globalization is a strange thing, on one hand you have tourism, then on the flip side you have sex tourism. Legal drugs are one market, illegal drugs are another and a serious multi-billion industry too. There is military distribution then you have arms dealers, for almost any industry there is an illegal version and this video is looking at these in a manner that doesn’t get into the morality of it but rather the economics of the issue. This is fascinating viewing, the full clip is here

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Merrill Lynch outlook for 2009

This is part 1 of 2 parts, the second one is here. The Merrill advisers think that the economy will be going more the way of Japan than into the inflation that we have felt was the most likely outcome, arguing deflation over inflation. We don’t agree with this outlook, but it is important to get a view from both sides of the argument. The credit collapse based recession/depression has been seen in the USA (1930’s) and also in Japan (1990’s), the question is which one is the current crisis most likely to resemble? Thought provoking, although not necessarily enlightening.

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Deflation or Inflation? What to expect in 2010

We have felt for quite some time that the risk of deflation will be met by monetary and fiscal stimulation to the point where it will give rise to several strong years of inflation. This extract is by James Grant of ‘Grants Interest Rate Observer‘. The question of ‘when’ the scales will tip in favour of inflation away from deflation is likely to be at some point in 2010.

This is why we are letting our clients know that we are watching the long term bond yields and when we see a divergence either in short to long or medium term to long we will be encouraging people to consider a longer term fixed rate. When the five year and one year cross that might be a good time, meanwhile, because more rate cuts are expected in 09′ it would not be the time yet for this kind of move.

We don’t have a crystal ball but we are keeping our eye on the bond market so that we can try to gauge …

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Hillary takes New Hampshire

Its clear that I am a big fan of Barack Obama, I nearly want to start a rumour that he’s Irish and his name is O’Bama and then everybody else here would like him too…

Anyways, Hillary took New Hampshire, Pollsters and pundits got it really wrong on this one! Mind you it was a 39 to 36% lead and not nearly as impressive as Obama’s Iowa performance but it has made me think about something.

Bill Clinton was my favourite president (Other than George Washington) and Hillary got eight years of indirect experience during that time, she’s a very bright and well versed lady and she certainly knows the pains of the Oval Office, more importantly you get Hillary you get Bill, its one of the only ways to bring him back into the domain of decision making because he cannot serve as president again. Behind every great man is a woman, and sometimes behind every great woman there is a man, isn’t the 21st century great that way!

One issue I do have is that Hillary Clinton cried …

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