Brexit budget seems uncertain

The time is coming once again for the Irish government to publish its annual Summer Economic Statement, which will be composed mostly by Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe. This years budget will be especially tricky, given the ominous threat of Brexit on the horizon. 

Donohoe’s strategy to combat the issues that are likely to arise given the likely succession of the United Kingdom from the European Union are related to the type of Brexit that occurs. According to the Economics and Social Institute, there are three scenarios that should likely be considered when drawing up a detailed economic plan for the future. 

In general, it is an ideal practice to compare all of these possibilities to a counterfactual scenario where no succession occurs. The three main possibilities, surrounded by economic and political uncertainty, are deal, no-deal, and disorderly no-deal. 

The deal scenario is described as the “UK making an orderly agreed exit from the EU” which “ involves a transition period covering the years 2019 and 2020, and a free trade agreement between the UK and the EU27 thereafter.”

The no-deal …

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Residential property prices rise across Ireland

Within the last 7 years there has been an upward trend for residential property pricing. So far, 2019 has continued to follow this trend, showing significant national growth each month; Dublin seems to stay at or above par in comparison to national average prices.  

Although this trend has been upwards, Ireland is still yet to reach the price levels that they had sustained in 2007. The current residential property prices in Dublin still falls at 22.5% lower than the highest period during the early 2000s, while the national values are 18.5% lower.

In 2018, the prices rose a total of 13.3% throughout the year, giving many sellers hope that the trend would continue forward into the following year. From February to March 2019, the prices increased 3.8%. March to April there was a 3.1% increase, which shows a smaller amount of increase, but it is still far from slowing down.

Dublin increased residential prices by 0.5%, leaving house prices and apartment rents increasing by the same 2.2% as the previous month.

It seems that Dublin and …

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Unemployment rate falls towards 6%

New figures released by the Central Statistics Office show that the current rate of unemployment is 6.3%, the lowest it has ever been since the market crash. This rate is 2% lower than that recorded in June of 2016 and the exact number of workers who are listed as unemployed fell by 42,100 during this time.

 

The current rate of unemployment in Ireland is 3% lower than the EU average, reflecting this country’s incredible economic progress in the past few years. Although the unemployment rate is still higher than that in countries like Germany and the Netherlands, experts predict that the steady downward trend will continue.

 

Furthermore, Ireland has an unique advantage in its ability to better integrate immigrants into the work force. The unemployment rate for foreign nationals in Ireland stood at just 7.7% last month, when they are much higher across the rest of Europe.

 

Economist Mariano Mamertino believes that “Ireland remains on a clear trajectory for unemployment to …

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What Brexit Means for the Irish Economy: a pro and a con

With UK Prime Minister Theresa May failing to win a majority in elections last week, the fate of Brexit negotiations have become even more up in the air. It is likely that she will be forced to give concessions the opposition, and thus take a softer stance on the terms of Brexit. Despite the specifics of the negotiation still being uncertain, it has become obvious that the Irish Economy will be hurt by declining trade with the UK and will at the same time benefit from the relocation of multinational corporations from the UK to Ireland.

The UK is one of the top destinations for Irish exports. In 2015, 12% of Irish exports went to the UK, valuing at $12.9 billion. However, Brexit will force terms of trade between the UK and Ireland to be re-examined. While Ireland will definitely try it’s best to keep trade with the UK as open as possible, with declining consumer spending in the UK and the falling price of the pound to the euro, Irish goods …

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Is the Black Market all bad? A talk on deviant globalization

Author Nils Gilman argues that black markets may not be a negative from every perspective. “If you like entrepreneurship, if you like innovation,” says Gilman, “then you’ve got to love deviant globalization.” Gilman notes that the narcotics industry in Mexico directly employees 400,000 people – more than finance or oil.

There is some great research being done on the black market, in Ireland Karen Mayor is working on a paper on the topic.

Deviant globalization is a strange thing, on one hand you have tourism, then on the flip side you have sex tourism. Legal drugs are one market, illegal drugs are another and a serious multi-billion industry too. There is military distribution then you have arms dealers, for almost any industry there is an illegal version and this video is looking at these in a manner that doesn’t get into the morality of it but rather the economics of the issue. This is fascinating viewing, the full clip is here

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Merrill Lynch outlook for 2009

This is part 1 of 2 parts, the second one is here. The Merrill advisers think that the economy will be going more the way of Japan than into the inflation that we have felt was the most likely outcome, arguing deflation over inflation. We don’t agree with this outlook, but it is important to get a view from both sides of the argument. The credit collapse based recession/depression has been seen in the USA (1930’s) and also in Japan (1990’s), the question is which one is the current crisis most likely to resemble? Thought provoking, although not necessarily enlightening.

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