Strong Currency

There is an automatic assumption that a strong currency (in particular against the USD) leads to a difficult exporting position because goods become ‘more expensive’ for other countries to buy, but – and certainly from an island perspective – our imports will generally get cheaper for dollar based commodities- so there are self balancing factors, borrowing also gets cheaper, although there is an asymmetry in Europe whereby only Germany seems to get that benefit.

Strong currency has often been the prevail of strong economies, buyers are naturally attracted to the currency and buy into it, for this reason the Venetian Ducat (a type of gold coin) was a standard in international markets for over 500 years from the late 13th century until the middle of the 19th century, this happened because the coin was never debased.

Debasement and re-minting were the metallurgical currency versions of monetarism today, if you wanted to increase the money supply you didn’t make a sanction to place more zero’s in somebody’s computer, instead you mixed lesser value metals with the coin of the realm.

The …

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Mohamed El-Erian of Pimco

Mohamed El-Erian talking about his opinion on where to invest in the future. He tells an interesting story in his inimitable style using language that anybody can understand. He thinks that investing in the ‘known’ is perhaps an error, this is a clear argument in favour of taking a portion of contrarian investments & perhaps going to cash.

There is some good opinion on cyclical, secular and structural aspects of portfolio management.

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