Why people will still invest in property in 2016

We plan to go through the maths soon of why the tax breaks that ended in 2014 were a bigger driver of a slow down in the market than the Central Bank rules, this aside, people will still invest in property.

The world of investment is relative, not absolute and for the €90 billion sitting in deposit earning 1% (at best) or less the implications are clear, you have to invest somewhere or get substandard returns which will eventually be eroded by inflation.

Along with a future of quantitative easing in Europe, the likelihood of a Dollar that will get stronger and a stock market that looks toppy to many, property will remain a focus for better or worse with many people who have money.

On the capital side you have a known shortage of property, that would lead some to believe there are significant capital gains to be had. On the dividend or yield side, you have strong rents which are still showing signs of rising.

Rents are certainly very strong versus the return on deposits even when you …

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Newstalk: Pat Kenny & Karl Deeter on housing, dereliction and sites

Pat Kenny spoke to Karl Deeter about some of the huge, but unreported issues in the housing market, such as ‘who owns derelict sites and buildings’ and how regulations can sometimes make it difficult to provide quality housing at affordable prices.

This was an extended segment on something of great national importance that generally doesn’t get a lot of airtime so we were very pleased with Newstalk for the opportunity to work through it and to have the time to describe many of the nuances that would otherwise be overlooked.

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Newstalk Lunchtime – priced out of housing?

We spoke to Jonathan Healy on Newstalk’s ‘Lunchtime’ about the issue of rising house prices and how the solution is more supply, at least relative to many other commonly prescribed fixes.

We also discussed the idea of there being a fee for making a bid on a property as well.

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RTE 6 News: Property prices

In this piece covering property prices, the increases in Dublin and the situation around the rest of the country we gave a brief comment highlighting that for the first time outside of Dublin there was a year on year sign of stabilisation in prices. Paul Murphy gave some excellent analysis on the topic.

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The non-recovery recovery which is or isn’t happening

Robert Kitchen of NUIM did a great post on people talking up the market. He stated that “What the data shows is that housing unit sales are relatively consistent over the past three and a half years, except for a brief surge at the end of 2012“.

As a person who trades in this area I don’t share the view that it’s totally consistent, there are peaks and troughs as seen in the graph from that blog.

He also states that “The first six months of 2013 are very similar in pattern to 2010.  In fact, in the first six months of 2013 only 273 more units have been sold than the first six months of 2010.  The data does not suggest then that there has been a bounce back in market activity to any significant degree”.

I suppose that comes down to what you call significant, if you are looking for any trend activity then take a look at …

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New trends in underwriting and credit

It is 2009 and one of the things we need to look at (at least from the mortgage market perspective) is the availability of credit. Many associations such as ISME and politicians such as Joan Burton have voiced strong opinion on the need for credit to be extended to small businesses. The same credit contraction is happening in lending for property.

While our firm, and almost everybody involved in the mortgage market accept that we are not at market clearing levels, the unavailability of credit for those who do wish to buy and are capable repaying their loans is going to cause an unnecessary distortion which will drive prices down further than is rational. Without getting too deeply into the reason for the credit contraction/deleveraging process which we have covered many times here before, the point of interest is the new brand of underwriting we are likely to see.

In the past people within the financial industry were looked upon favourably, not only due to the fact that they normally represented a …

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