What is happening with Irish Bonds?

With our bonds auctions making news (in the past bond auctions were dreadfully boring affairs) and the recent S&P downgrade on the nation I thought it might be useful to take a look at some charts. What I believe is happening is that nobody truly believes we will default, Greece wasn’t allowed to do it, the ECB is backing auctions where necessary and yield hunters are happy to lend at an appropriate price (thus the over subscription of the issuance).

This is a chart of Credit Default Swap prices, the purple line is Ireland, Spain is white, Italy green and Portugal Orange. Often CDS’s are referred to as being an indicator beyond reproach, but it is important to remember that this financial derivative which is barely over a decade old is actually a barometer in the sense of insurance premiums, and the market is not infinite, so at any given time there may not be a matching number of sellers v.s. buyers and the prices go up, Irish debt likely has …

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