Brexit budget seems uncertain

The time is coming once again for the Irish government to publish its annual Summer Economic Statement, which will be composed mostly by Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe. This years budget will be especially tricky, given the ominous threat of Brexit on the horizon. 

Donohoe’s strategy to combat the issues that are likely to arise given the likely succession of the United Kingdom from the European Union are related to the type of Brexit that occurs. According to the Economics and Social Institute, there are three scenarios that should likely be considered when drawing up a detailed economic plan for the future. 

In general, it is an ideal practice to compare all of these possibilities to a counterfactual scenario where no succession occurs. The three main possibilities, surrounded by economic and political uncertainty, are deal, no-deal, and disorderly no-deal. 

The deal scenario is described as the “UK making an orderly agreed exit from the EU” which “ involves a transition period covering the years 2019 and 2020, and a free trade agreement between the UK and the EU27 thereafter.”

The no-deal …

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