The China Bubble

I have maintained for some time that new world orders don’t occur overnight, and that even trends that may appear to be secular don’t necessarily work out if you extrapolate them into the future. Let me explain, in the 70’s everybody said Brazil was going to rule the world by the late 1980’s, they came up with all of the reasons for this, demographic, growth, the education and markets in place etc. then it just didn’t happen.

By the end of the 80’s when Brazil was meant to be the new world power they had been usurped, this time by Japan, now it was the turn of the Japanese to be ruling the world within the next 20 years, then far from taking over Japan imploded and they have struggled ever since.

Today we are told that it will instead be China who rule the world by 2020, and frankly, I don’t believe that this can happen without massive painful adjustment that would set them back years, and it also doesn’t accommodate for the fact that the USA views the …

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Next bubble, China?

I have believed for some time that China will not become the #1 world power in my lifetime, contrary to what many analysts say, in the past I was a huge believer in the potential of China and of their capacity to grow, but with increasing social unrest (the protest that made the paper yesterday is one of the few that is actually reported), pollution issues, required growth of 8% in order to stay on the road, as well as inflation and the impending organisation of labour, China will have a harsh adjustment to deal with in the near future

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