Non-credit fuelled booms

There has been an ongoing narrative that the last housing boom (and many others) was only possible due to excessive credit. We have argued for a long time that this is a mistaken interpretation. While credit can make a bad situation worse, just like adding fuel to a flame, it is not the genesis of the problem.

We were pleased to see this view articulated by the Central Bank Governor Philip Lane recently. He stated that “cash buyers of property are limiting the ability of the Central Bank to control house prices through mortgage lending rules” he “singled out cash buyers as one of the key drivers of inflation in the Irish property market. Cash buyers used to account for about 25 per cent of house purchases in Ireland, but since the crash and ensuing credit crunch this figure has risen to 60 per cent“.

This is a point we have been making for years, firstly was that first time buyers are not, and have not been the problem. That was part of why we were specifically …

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Proportion of buyers with mortgages surpass those who buy in cash in first time since market crash

Recent data reveals that the percentage of home buyers with mortgages have surpassed that of those who buy in cash. This is the first time this has happened since the property bubble and subsequent crash. On July 26th 2016, an Irish Independent/Real Estate Alliance survey reported that 60% of houses are bought with cash, now, roughly a year later, the same survey concluded that less than 30% of homes are purchased by cash buyers.

 

During the years after the housing crash, the high percentages of cash buyers was caused by higher interest rates, stricter restrictions on lending, higher rates of unemployment, and the large amount of speculators purchasing properties as assets after the original home owners have defaulted on their loans. This indicated a general distrust in the market and the squeezing out of mortgage buyers who have defaulted on their homes.

 

Central Bank economist Dermot Coates predicted in 2016 that the proportion of cash buyers was “neither sustainable nor likely to continue into the future”. …

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