Where we are in the property cycle and what to expect next

Property cycles have always been a source of fascination for me (KD) and it’s worth briefly mentioning where we are now and where we are likely to go.

In the past I have always said that there are two broadly distinct phases, the first is a post-crash recovery where you see prices come back then rise fairly quickly before stalling.

The ‘stall’ is a mid cycle phenomenon where due to prices having risen you see a lot of buyers back off or take stock of the position, the memory of ‘we saw something like this before’ is still there to haunt them.

After that you get into the second phase where the upward momentum recommences but this time, having seen that the stall was somewhat ‘false’ (in the sense that it is perceived that way, it doesn’t actually have to be that), prices rise up even quicker.

This is unexpected (to some) and evidence that you have to ‘get in’ on the game. It brings us to the second phase which is the classic ‘boom-bust’. This eventuality is inevitable in …

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Newstalk: post budget analysis with Jonathan Healy

We took part in a post budget analysis on Newstalk with Jonathan Healy to discuss housing in particular and the budget in general. It was a tame budget compared to the previous six years and on the new ‘help to buy’ scheme we are not categorically for or against it, although we are against some of the hot-take criticisms because further analysis is required.

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Independent vs Irish Times

Sometimes it’s interesting to see how two different papers cover the same story.

Here is the Irish Times talking about how crowds failed to materialise at a property sale in Swords.

And then the Indo follows stating that nearly all of the houses sold.

Granted, they were filed on two different days and the Times couldn’t have known the level of sales, but they did point out the crowds didn’t arrive, the rational deduction being that there was ‘no rush’ to buy the homes. The Indo pointed out that 45 of 53 properties sold, that’s almost 80% of what was available in a day or two.

So is there a rush on for these homes? Yes, because 80% of anything with a price tag of a quarter of a million Euro never sells that quick when we don’t have a supply side issue – something Conor Skehan of the Housing Agency is lording over the mere mortals Read More

Boom Bust, house prices, banking, and the depression of 2010 by Fred Harrison (book review)

I have been quite public about my belief in property tax (caveat being we should have far less income tax/levies etc. perhaps a ‘flat tax’ would be best), and if there is one book that has really helped to shape that opinion quite succinctly it is Fred Harrison’s masterpiece on the topic, and the subject of this review ‘Boom Bust‘.

Fred Harrison saw the property crash in the UK of 1989/90 in 1980, and furthermore, he named a date, he also named a date of specifically 2010 (as a bottom, not as the ‘start’ of a crash) in the mid 90’s. How? It is due to his analysis which goes back to the 1500’s of property cycles, and while I am still sceptical about his ’18 year’ cycle, the one thing that fully convinced me was the basis and need for a more rational and working approach to property and taxation of same, or the ‘democratisation …

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