What is happening with fixed rates?

We have been asked a few times about fixed mortgage rates and why they are lower than standard variable rates at the moment.

This has been going on for a few months in the mortgage market and the reason is fairly simple, lending rates are going to drop over time.

The one year fixed rate has traditionally been one that is used to attract business to a bank or building society. They are often a loss leading rate and after availing of it the person goes onto a higher rate or another fixed rate so we have to strip them out.

But from the 2yr rate onwards you normally paid a premium over and above the standard variable rate. So what is happening?

Lower fixed rates mean that banks are going to capture a margin that is likely to decline in the near future. The Euro yield curve is below.

What you see is that it is negative (below zero) for many years into the future, in fact, it’s only hitting …

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Deflation or Inflation? What to expect in 2010

We have felt for quite some time that the risk of deflation will be met by monetary and fiscal stimulation to the point where it will give rise to several strong years of inflation. This extract is by James Grant of ‘Grants Interest Rate Observer‘. The question of ‘when’ the scales will tip in favour of inflation away from deflation is likely to be at some point in 2010.

This is why we are letting our clients know that we are watching the long term bond yields and when we see a divergence either in short to long or medium term to long we will be encouraging people to consider a longer term fixed rate. When the five year and one year cross that might be a good time, meanwhile, because more rate cuts are expected in 09′ it would not be the time yet for this kind of move.

We don’t have a crystal ball but we are keeping our eye on the bond market so that we can try to gauge …

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