I used to be in a Chess Club, and one thing it taught me (apart from how to lose using the Kings Gambit) is that you can often see a general result long before you see it exactly, when you are a piece down and can’t control the centre of the board you know you are in trouble, but how and where the checkmate occurs is unknown, game theory can’t tell you precisely and reverse integration from the end game may not bring you to where you started from, but the player knows instinctively that they are up against the wall.
Sometimes appearances can be deceiving, you might think you are fine and you are not (2003-2009), other times you can get caught up about losing a pawn but you are in fact gaining ground (2010), albeit painfully and slowly.
I believe the same can often apply to markets. Today we will look at the reasons for why we believe the banks are going to survive and furthermore, what the results will be of their survival.
The core belief in …
