Today’s figures show that there are 40,472 households in arrears, the Expert Group said that 45,000 have rescheduled their loan with a 20-25% crossover in those in arrears (meaning that [worryingly] 75% of people in arrears haven’t rescheduled) so you can drop that figure to 33,750.
This gives a current figure of 74,222 – and that’s taking the greater amount of overlap rather than the lower one (which makes this figure smaller than it may be). Remember however, that the arrears figure of 40,472 is two months old and a 10% increase per quarter – which is what we have see quarter on quarter over the last year would put today’s number at (((Today’s arrears *10%)/3))*2) – giving a current total of adding 2,698 to the number
So Morgan Kelly was off the wall with his 100,000 figure remark? Hardly…
This doesn’t factor in the 8,250 local authority loans that are greater than 3 months in arrears which makes our figure (currently) 40,742 + 2,698 + 8,250 giving a total of 51,420 in arrears plus the 33,750 mentioned earlier; grand total 85,170.
And finally, the hay-maker: we only count arrears from 90 days or more. The international standard is to count from 30 days or more, but we have no idea of that amount. If the arrears are going up by 10% per quarter then we can assume that there is at least a 10% cohort in the 30-89 days area of 4-5000 (we’ll take the mid point of 4,500) meaning our final figure probably, at this moment in time, closer to 89,670 (ish). If we were to take the overlap figure from the first paragraph as being 20% rather than 25% that would cause an increase of 2,250 placing the final figure at 91,920.
So perhaps, given that the halfway mark between the Department of Finance/Financial Regulators estimates, and those that are likely real today is 85,000 and the live estimate is closer to 90,000 or more depending on which way you use the Expert Group figures then I think a certain Department and Regulator owes a certain economist an apology.