The yield curve on US Treasuries

Tom Keene from Bloomberg talks about the yield curve and some of the spreads that we are seeing in the current market, as well as that there are the seeds of the inflation story that we have been warning about since 2008.

Separately there are Harvard economists saying we need to see some inflation as it would prevent people from holding off on spending (look up the paradox of thrift and of deleveraging).

One final video worth looking at is the last one in this post, it poses the question ‘what will happen when the Chinese stop saving’.

One of the major oversights in this clip is that the Asian tendency towards savings is embedded in their culture, that means you can’t provide healthcare or anything else and expect the trend to end, it will probably take more than a decade for such a transition to occur because habits don’t change overnight, the ‘Chinese Way’ is not a movement that can turn on a dime.

The focus on trade links however is really interesting and the big international story in the near term is (at least for me!) that of what will happen with China in regard to trade, their solutions, their relationship with the dollar and with their role in Asia greater expressed outwards to the rest of the world.

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