Pat Kenny had two well known commentators on the Late Late show on Friday, David Cantwell a director with the largest new homes estate agent Hooke & MacDonald and Derek Braun author of ‘Irelands House Party’. The section on the show had some interesting debate and both sides had some valid points, some things however were not mentioned – for instance – Braun pointed out that huge profits were made on a certain south side development (and nobody doubts that) but there was no mention of the taxation that is paid via contributions to local councils, VAT, other taxation, paying bubble wages etc.
Cantwell spoke about property prices being at their bottom (granted this is only in his opinion) when considering the supply and other economic factors they clearly cannot be, as well as failing to mention some of the common sense home truths which Braun used to shoot down his arguments.
The only issue I have is that of all the developers I know only one isn’t going into liquidation, in a previous post we talked about the developers who won’t be going broke, so I think that the ‘fat cats’ element of much commentary is misguided.
If Mr. Cantwell is telling the truth, that transactions are up then that is a fact, and neither econometrics or models can deny the market. I would agree with Braun that there is more to go, this week (in association with Propertyweek.ie) we will look at a comparison of property versus deposits and show that the risk premium is non-existent at the moment. In any case, open debate on the property market is welcome and the current guise is very frank which was lacking in the past.
On a final point NAMA is mentioned as being a possibility for private individuals, and it would probably be worth a mention that NAMA is a commercial entity and not there to ‘assume’ your negative equity or debt, it is there to juice debtors to the wall, whether that happens via a bank or another organisation is of little difference. Otherwise this was basically the property commentary version of the Hatton v Pacquiao fight and Braun in this example was the Filipino.