We have felt for quite some time that the risk of deflation will be met by monetary and fiscal stimulation to the point where it will give rise to several strong years of inflation. This extract is by James Grant of ‘Grants Interest Rate Observer‘. The question of ‘when’ the scales will tip in favour of inflation away from deflation is likely to be at some point in 2010.
This is why we are letting our clients know that we are watching the long term bond yields and when we see a divergence either in short to long or medium term to long we will be encouraging people to consider a longer term fixed rate. When the five year and one year cross that might be a good time, meanwhile, because more rate cuts are expected in 09′ it would not be the time yet for this kind of move.
We don’t have a crystal ball but we are keeping our eye on the bond market so that we can try to gauge timing in order to protect our clients, it’s important to realise – we are not saying we can call ‘bottoms’ or anything else, we can merely interpret events and use that information to try to protect our clients wealth.