1. Rob Kitchin

    Karl, thanks for this rejoinder. I think we’re roughly on the same page re. market being far from normal, though I think you’re a bit more of an optimist than me in interpreting the data. If there is an upward trend, taking into account the yearly cycles of sales, it is very marginal and was pushed up a lot at end of 2012 by MIR terminating – as your graphs show. The data does not support some of the rhetoric about market recovery I’ve been reading. I have just tweaked my original blog post as I was going back through spreadsheet and noticed a typo. It barely changes things but means that the difference between first six months of 2010 and first six months of 2013 is 328 units not 273. Your post allowed me to catch that, so thanks.

  2. Karl Deeter

    @rob if you had to eek a living in this opaque shallow trench I think you’d end up with some positive bias too – it’s the only thing keeping some of us sane!

    Because MIR/TRS ended in 2012 and 2013 early months were ahead I think it could signal momentum, my concern is that investors lured by low deposit rates and the CGT free period for 7 years might cause a distortion in 2013 and 2014 could be a wipe out.

    The total difference ytd is about 10% so it’s material (at least if we were looking at it in accounting terms!) but not a game changer when viewed as a part of total stock.

    Will do another post on the absorption rates because that is something we don’t hear about often.

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