Property price are set to rise and rise… (then crash)

We have been clear about our views on property cycles for many years. That is why we said when many were saying the crash would run and run, that we took a contrarian view and said the market would rise and rise quickly, then experience a mid-cycle slow down and return to a rapid increase in prices.

Our ‘mid-cycle’ was called in 2015 as the Macro-Prudential rules kicked in that they wouldn’t calm the market. We said any effect would be temporary at best and that price increases would return and lead us up and up into a crash in the mid 2020’s. This prediction has been one we made long before almost anybody else in the market and we see no reason to believe (for now) that it won’t happen.

The frustration now is about what to do in light of this, for people who want to rent you need to nail down rental contracts – even though more than half the country has rent control because it is going (meant to) end in 2019. For those looking to …

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Rents continue to increase over the year by substantial amount

In reference to Irish private sector rents grew by 7.37% from 1st quarter 2016 to 1st quarter 2017 by Robert McHugh on 15 June 2017 in Business World.

Over the course of only a year, the average rent increased by 7.37% from 1st quarter 2016 to 1st quarter 2017. The standardised average national rent being €987, Dublin is one of the highest amongst the other counties as well as Cork and Galway. Looking over the houses and apartments market the trend of rents are continuing to grow.

Outside the Dublin county, the houses and apartment rents at a overall growth rate of 1.3% in private sector rents. Annual growth increased by 7.6% in houses and apartments. The margin is shrinking between the peak of 2007 and the 2017 first quarter however, it is still 8% below.

So far the 19 Rent Pressure Zones (RBZ) are located in parts of the following counties: Dublin, Cork, Galway, Meath. No other parts of the country are currently able to become Rent Pressure Zones, according the to latest Rent Index.

Mr. Simon Coveney, …

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Housing Prices are to Remain High in the Future

With reference to Housing Costs likely to remain elevated in Medium Term by Ali Uğur.

The housing costs look to remain elevated with no promise of decreasing throughout the rest of 2017. With increases in the average price of property at 10.7% from 2016 to February 2017 according to the CSO residential property price index.

Concerning rental properties, the rental inflation is 13.4% for the first quarter of 2017. This being the second highest level since 2002. This is in part from the supply and demand issue here in Ireland for rental property. The May 1st, 2017 there was fewer than 3,100 rental properties available to rent. This is the lowest on the record, according to the Daft.ie report.

Looking on the bright side, we are seeing an 18% yearly increase in completed residential properties with 14,932 completed in 2016. This is in response to trying to meet the increase of demand in the housing market. A majority of these, however, are one-time builds and can’t predict any yearly continuous builds. The breaking of grounds for new residential homes has …

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A response to: Housing for homes – a classic case of market failure

A recent blog post published by Tom Healy, director of the Nevin Economic Research Institute, suggested that the current housing market in Ireland is an example of a failed market. Healy believes that the issue of under supply of housing can only be solved if the government expands provisions of social housing and extends its jurisdictions over prices and supply in the housing market.

Healy based his argument upon the assumption that the current housing market has failed and is unable to recover without intervention. He cites a chronic under supply of housing and the inability of government programs to sufficiently meet demand. While there is indeed a under supply of housing and rising prices due to pent up demand, a series of government construction plans such as the 2013 Forfas Strategy, Capital Investment Plan, and Action Plan for Housing and the Homeless, in addition to private investments are expected to dramatically increase housing supply within the next few years. These projects directly address the supply issue by promising 47,000 additional units of social housing before 2021.

The blog post …

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Property Company Drops Landlords: What this means for Dublin’s rental market

Property agent Hooke & MacDonald announced Monday that it will no longer manage individual lettings because of the paperwork costs involved. The Residential Tenancies Act of 2004 has been recently amended by the Residential Tenancies Act of 2015 and the Planning and Development and Residential Tenancies Act of 2016, which extended rent pressure zones, made it harder to raise rents and increased the frequency of rent reviews and other bureaucratic procedures for private rented housing.

For a large property company like Hooke & MacDonald, the new regulations mean that managing single property lettings is no longer profitable. The company suffers from economies of scale, and only by managing entire apartment blocks and multiple lettings will it be cost efficient. For landlords renting a single property, this means not only being restricted by the regulations but also having to find a different company to represent them.

Hooke & MacDonald’s response reflects the consequences of the new regulations. In particular, regulation on rent pressure zones restrict the rise in rents …

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Today FM ‘Last Word’ speaks to Irish Mortgage Brokers, 27th April 2017

Matt Cooper had several guests in to discuss the new proposal for 800 sites owned by the government to be released in order to provide new housing.

There was  Jim Bainam from the Department of Housing, Karl Deeter from Irish Mortgage Brokers and Sinn Fein TD Eoin O’Brionn.

There were differences of opinion in terms of the ‘how’ regarding the sites, in terms of ‘how they are delivered’ via housing bodies, local authorities or privately, but all of the panellists were positive about a move to increase housing supply.

The main thing to remember in our view, is that it doesn’t really matter who builds what because the local authority remain the tax authority on all housing so they can get the housing with no capital outlay and then capture the property tax in future years if a private developer does it.

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Q102 Drive at 5 features Irish Mortgage Brokers, Wednesday 26th April

Scott and Venetia had us on their show to discuss the property market and to go through some of the things that are affecting it.

They also found out how much he paid for his last haircut and a few other unusual things that you don’t normally hear on radio!

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Generation Rent? Try generation Broke

It bothers me when people promote long-term renting as a better choice than home ownership because it belies some basic facts.

When I was studying accounting, I was taught to be accurate. When I was learning about financial advice, I was taught to be prudent. Yet both of these concerns are often cast aside when debating the benefits of buying versus renting.

Nationally we are at an important juncture. It’s acknowledged that huge numbers of people won’t be able to afford to buy a home. If this proves to be true, many will also be locked out of one of life’s most wealth-creating activities.

The first problem is the nature of the comparison. If rent is €1,300 a month and a mortgage costs €1,500, then it’s cheaper to rent, right? Well . . . no it isn’t. The outlay is less, but the actual cost of the provision of occupancy is the rent versus the interest portion of the mortgage, not the entire payment. I will explain that point.

People often say rent is dead money. To be fair, so …

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TodayFM: The last Word features Irish Mortgage Brokers

Matt Cooper had Irish Mortgage Brokers on ‘The Last Word’ to discuss some changes announced by Simon Coveney regarding rent controls in Dublin and Cork.

The piece focused on some of the issues at hand with a commentator from the Dublin Tenants Association also taking part.

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