Negative interest rates are both gone and here at the same time.

Many commentators are talking about the end of negative interest rates in nominal terms and it’s true, interest rates are rising but in real terms they are still negative. Look at mortgage rates (for instance), you can borrow at 3% and below and meanwhile you have property price appreciation at 15% meaning that in real terms you are paying -12%.

If you can ever get something on a continuous basis at -12% that indicates ‘buy’, and that’s what people are doing, but notice that we mentioned ‘continuous’, the reality is that there is no arbitrage most of the time and this will be closed down by either rising costs, falling prices or some other outcome that we can’t forsee. Trees don’t grow to the sky, they never have and never will so the trajectory of house prices must rationalise but it’s hard to see how or where at present because the demand side seems so demonstrably strong.

I bumped into Kieran McQuinn on Pearse Street today and in our brief chat mentioned how the price changes are not sustainable, he …

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What is happening with interest rates, why, and what can you do?

What is happening with interest rates?

Interest rates rise and fall, we have been in a secular-ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) environment for quite some time and as people who subscribe to the monetarist school of thought, this would always lead to inflation which we are seeing now, albeit a fairly delayed response given how long this policy has been in place.

Why?

Not too long ago the yield curve was negative 20 years into the future such was the dismal outlook of markets for any level of inflation, but then you had a pandemic, the ‘great resignation’ and between labor and supply constraints along with monetary policy effects, there is inflation you haven’t seen in 40 years. Now the curve is negative only one year into the future and the price in the money markets has risen.

Just to clarify this, many mortgage providers get their money by buying it (you buy at X + interest rate and then ‘sell’ it to borrowers at X+margin [which is ideally above the price you bought it at]). In an oversimplified manner, …

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European property and mortgages: Frankfurt

Residential real estate is as popular as ever. Many people fulfill their dream of owning their own home with a one- or two-family house or a condominium. High demand is driving real estate prices to infinity. The problem of housing shortages is on the rise. Forecasting future prices is not that easy. Rents could rise even further due to excess demand. Many are therefore looking for alternatives. These include buying condominiums or single-family homes.

The average asking price for a condominium in Germany was €3,748 per square meter in the first half of 2021. This represents an increase of 15.1 percent compared with the first half of 2020. In previous years, the annual increase had still been around ten percent. One- and two-family houses and terraced houses were offered for an average of 350,000 euros, representing an increase of 12.9 percent.

However, this does not apply equally to all of Germany. There are significant regional differences. The best example here is eastern Germany, which is still considerably cheaper than western Germany. It doesn’t matter whether we’re talking about condominiums and …

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European mortgages explained: Czech Republic

About Czech Republic

The Czech Republic ia a state in Central Europe. It is a landlocked state of 78,870 km2. It is bordered by Germany, Austria, Poland and Slovakia. The capital city is Prague. The Czech Republic is a market economy country that belongs to the highly developed countries of the world, according to economic, social and political indicators. Economically it belongs to the world’s 31 riches nations with the highest financial incomes, according to the World Bank. The unemployment rate has been low for a long time and below the average for developed countries.

History of the Czech Republic

Czech Republic was first populated by Celts 4th century. In 863, the Byzantine missionaries Constantin and Methodius come to the part of the present-day Czech Republic and introduced Slavic liturgy there. The defeat of Austria-Hungary in World war 1 cleared the way for the foundation of an independent state of Czechoslovakia, which was founded on October 28, 1918. The first president of Czechoslovakia was Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk. On January 1, 1993, Czechoslovakia was divided into two independent states: Czech Republic …

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Irish Mortgage Brokers featured in the Irish Times

We were mentioned in the Irish Times in a piece by Cliff Taylor about the increase in the number of people seeking to refinance their home.

Rather than a fear of higher interest rates, Karl Deeter, of Irish Mortgage Brokers, believes it is primarily driven by people facing tightening (link to article here)

The crux of the point being made is that as inflation is affecting people and rates look set to rise that it is naturally driving people to consider ways to get better prices on one of their biggest outgoings and to get some assurance on what the price levels of their outgoings will be.

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History of the Landesbank (Bavaria)

In Germany, Landesbanken are credit institutions that carry out banking transactions for individual federal states and support the state in promoting the economy.

The history of the legal predecessors of today’s Landesbanken often dates back to the 18th century. In their now familiar form, the banks emerged in the years after World War II, when the German states issued their first state bonds with the help of the Landesbanken. In the respective federal state for which they carry out banking transactions and act in an advisory capacity, they perform a kind of house bank function. In addition, the Landesbanken are authorized to conduct all banking transactions permitted under their statutes. In this respect, they have been operating on the market for years as general commercial or universal banks.

The business model of the Landesbanken has faced a dilemma since the abolition of institutional burden and guarantor liability in 2005; on the one hand, they conduct banking business for their federal state, but on the other hand, they are on a par with private banks and have to hold their own …

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The economy of Nuremberg

Nuremberg is the second-largest city in Bavaria after Munich. According to the population register in December 2021 530,222 people had a registered main residence in Nuremberg. Within the last two Corona years, Nuremberg’s population has thus declined by 1.1%. The main reason for this is the Corona pandemic. Since October 2021, the number of inhabitants has been increasing significantly again. According to the Nuremberg and Fürth Statistical Information System, about 32.000 people moved away from Nuremberg in the year 2021.

Nuremberg was ranked among the top 25 cities with the best quality of life worldwide in a study (Worldwide Quality of Living Survey) conducted by the consulting firm Mercer, and was ranked sixth among German cities in 2010.

The overall quality of living and satisfaction of the population is continually determined every three years in most German cities. The last survey took place in 2019 with over 1,000 participants. More than 80% of all attendees from Nuremberg were satisfied with the public areas such as markets, squares, and pedestrian zones in their city. The condition of roads and buildings as …

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Nuremburg property market

Nuremberg isn’t known as a significant real estate location even though it has been the economic and cultural centre of Northern Bavaria for years. But lower prices than in more prominent German cities, make buying property in Nuremberg a good investment.

The property market is growing steadily which can be seen in a renewed high level of real estate transaction volume in 2021. At EUR 1.39 billion, the sales volume was indeed about a tenth below the previous year’s figure, but it was still slightly above the average of the last five years. The top position was taken by the segment of institutional housing with a generated transaction volume of around EUR 525 million. The surpassing of last year’s figure by +6% is an indicator to a continuing interest in residential investments in Nuremberg.

The office segment showed a contradictory development in 2021 with only EUR 286 million or 61% less than the previous year due to a lack of opportunities.  Since there were no large-volume sales (above EUR 100 million) observed the highest office transaction amounted to almost EUR …

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Understanding German Mortgages.

Mortgage lenders in Germany allow you to borrow up to 100% of the property value (although you will have to cover some other costs of buying a house, such as purchase fees, with your own equity). While some German banks will be willing to finance the full amount, loans of around 80% are more common.

A major German community-oriented bank that wants to bring its model to Ireland believes it could play a role in solving the housing crisis. Sparkasse, the biggest bank in Germany, wants to create an alternative to the major commercial banks, particularly in regional towns.

The European Investment Bank has indicated support for the €200m project, said Sparkasse. That support is conditional on the proposal receiving political backing in Ireland. So far, this has been slow to materialize.

Sparkasse, which issues half of all German mortgages at rates well below standard Irish rates, believes Ireland is ideal for its municipality-owned, non-profit model.

The 200-year-old bank is aimed squarely at SMEs and the middle segment of the market. In Germany, where it has 300,000 staff in hundreds …

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“Covid Effect” continues to drive up Irish house prices

The sharp increase in Irish house prices over the past year could continue in the near future, analysts say. In a recent survey of estate agents, four out of five surveyed predicted that national property prices would rise in the next year. The same survey also found that prices in some regions could rise by as much as 7 percent.

However, the rise in prices is most significant outside of Dublin. While experts predicted a rise of 4 percent in Dublin, a sharper increase is projected in areas outside the capital city. In Leinster, the rise is expected to be 6 percent, and prices are expected to increase by as much as 7 percent in Munster, Connacht and Ulster.

The Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) and the Central Bank of Ireland Residential Property Price Survey was conducted in May, surveying over 200 estate agents. In this survey, the estate agents blamed the higher price forecast on homes outside of Dublin on the “covid effect”. The experts said that covid lockdowns and remote work situations have increased the attractiveness of …

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