Newstalk: Karl Deeter on the Pat Kenny show discussing pensions

The Pat Kenny Show on Newstalk had us on to talk about the future of pensions and to help people understand some of the looming issues in the retirement space.

It is a complex problem which is affected by everything from home-ownership to central bank interest rates. The main thing to take from it is that everybody who can start a pension, no matter how small, should do so. One of the biggest issues is the fact that people don’t even have one they can contribute to.

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First experience with ‘Help to Buy’

We are currently undergoing our first experience with a client who wants to use ‘Help to Buy’ and the same issue has arisen at two different banks so we are comfortable that it is probably a teething issue that is live and current.

The problem is that the banks are telling us they need proof the person will qualify for the HTB scheme, but to qualify you have to have a signed contract, no borrower is going to sign a contract unless the bank will advance the loan factoring in the HTB because otherwise they may not be able to complete the loan.

The lenders had forewarned us that there would be problems, but this one seems very basic. They could just make the offer contingent on the person qualifying for the scheme. Otherwise it will mean that people are stuck waiting for the contractors name to show up on what is so far a very short list, and they are also putting the kart before the horse in terms of how it was meant to operate.

For now all …

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Making sense of ‘help to buy’

Yesterday Revenue announced the details of the new ‘help to buy’ scheme. It is designed to make buying a home more realistic for first time buyers and to increase the supply of new homes. Whether it’s a good or bad idea is beside the point, what most people want to know is how it works so here’s the breakdown.

It’s a scheme to allow first time buyers buying a new home to get a rebate of up to 5% of the purchase price or contract price (whichever is the lower) from income tax and DIRT tax paid in the past four tax years to a maximum of €20,000. The property must cost less than €500,000 or 600k for retrospective applications, the size of the loan versus the value of the property must also be 70% or more.

So, for every €100,000 of value you must be borrowing at least €70,000 the idea being that very cash rich buyers don’t need this help. It started on the 19th of July 2016 and goes until the 31 Dec 2019.

Now that it’s …

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TodayFM: The last Word features Irish Mortgage Brokers

Matt Cooper had Irish Mortgage Brokers on ‘The Last Word’ to discuss some changes announced by Simon Coveney regarding rent controls in Dublin and Cork.

The piece focused on some of the issues at hand with a commentator from the Dublin Tenants Association also taking part.

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Vultures are a key part of our housing recovery

When we hear talk of ‘vultures’ and ‘vulture funds’ it’s usually in highly negative overtones. That’s why the name-calling exists in the first place, the idea is to imply you have these groups that feed off the dead bodies of an innocent party.

Put this aside and realize that even if a company does feed off the assets of a failed one, that it doesn’t mean the firm that failed was somehow an innocent bystander. Usually they lost their market share and assets as a result of their own decisions and by definition a liquidator would sell these on to somebody.

Whether that ‘somebody’ is a person, fund or regular company hardly matters. What does matter is that we have a housing crisis and that these same ‘vultures’ will likely be delivering about 75% or more of private new housing in Dublin where the problems are most pronounced.

Take a look at some of the numbers in new developments: * Lone Star own 600 acres of land in Dublin with the potential for 7,000 homes: in Adamstown, where it has …

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Irish Times mentions Irish Mortgage Brokers: Why is there a housing shortage?

We were featured in today’s Irish Times on an article by Barry McCall asking ‘why do we have housing shortages’.

Our contribution is as follows: Karl Deeter of Irish Mortgage Brokers believes this is part of a global trend. “The mega-trend is that we are now living in a low-yield world,” he says. “Central banks are being forced to play both sides of the same table. Low interest rates cause asset prices to rise and the Central Bank is curtailing credit to prevent asset price rises. But there is an upward pressure on house prices despite this and it has been compounded by the earlier economic collapse which has led to supply disruption. These are trends that are bigger than any of us.”

While the Central Bank rules are undoubtedly playing a part in the problem, Deeter sees supply as equally, if not more, important and one factor here is planning laws. “Ireland has a particular problem when it comes to third-party property rights,” he argues. “Planning applications for housing developments are being turned down in areas where …

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Even supply doesn’t fix a supply issue.

Housing is confounding, we are at a frustrating juncture where after a massive property crash brought about in part by a glut of housing we now have the opposite situation of a housing shortage in many areas.

Solutions abound, but no matter what happens this shortage is going to persist due to the time it takes to deliver housing and even if we announced a shovel ready, commencing tomorrow plan for 25,000 houses in cities the shortage would persist for at least another two years.

When you see various commentators saying what will or won’t work it’s almost arbitrary because nothing works in the short term, the main ingredient required to fix this is time.

Housing grants to first time buyers may push up prices, even if they don’t it doesn’t of itself create supply today. Many of the proposals will serve one side of a transaction without affecting price.

If we got rid of VAT would house prices drop? Or would developers merely pocket the additional income because of the fact that a price set during a shortage becomes …

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Newstalk: Pat Kenny show features Irish Mortgage Brokers

The Pat Kenny Show on Newstalk had Karl Deeter in studio to discuss the property market today. We tried to make the point that there are several issues in the market making a tricky situation even harder to navigate, but that double sided approaches by the Central Bank (loose monetary policy and low interest rates) are helping to drive prices up while other rules are attempting to restrict credit.

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The unaffordability index of Irish housing

This picture speaks a thousand words and in many cases tens of thousands of earnings that a person would have to have in order to afford an average home in different parts of the country. We used recent data from the Daft report and then broke it down into borrowings and compared that to average wages.

The column after ‘county’ is the average price in that region. If we assume a first time buyer will typically want a 90% mortgage we then look at the amount of earnings they’d need to have in order to get the loan.

The last column is where the real story lies, it compares prices in the area to average wages taken from the CSO.

Anything in a white cell with a minus is very affordable, anything in black means you’d have to be earning above average wage to buy a property in the area.

If the cell has a red background that is showing you where the difference is greater than €10,000.

It’s fairly clear that cities and in some cases …

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2016 Mortgage lending rules submission by Irish Mortgage Brokers

We sent our research and thoughts on the lending rules to the Central Bank as part of their industry consultation process regarding the existing mortgage lending rules.

While we are critical of them in particular for first time buyers, we haven’t had an issue on other aspects of it (such as controls for investors). The submission argues with supporting evidence for 90% loans for first time buyers to be available generally but to keep other controls generally in place, or to do nothing at all and give the adjustments more time to bed in.

Submission is here: 2016 Central Bank macroprudential rules submission Irish Mortgage Brokers

The findings of a survey carried out by Behavior and Attitudes of clients of Irish Mortgage Brokers, DNG and Hooke & MacDonald which was mentioned in the press is also available here: 2016 MacroPrudential review – survey findings

 

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