Yet Another Warning of a Property Bubble: More Perspectives

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development has voiced fears that the economy is overheating. This comes soon after the Fiscal Advisory Council heeded similar warnings earlier this week.

The OECD believes that the banking system is still fragile, with bad loans still accounting for 17% of the total. And while the government has already put into place plenty of macro-prudential policies, there is still the possibility that rapidly rising prices lead to another bubble and burst that would disrupt the delicate economy.

Indicative of OEDC’s stance, overall property market prices are up 8.2% this year at the end of April. The boom in construction is already visible on Dublin’s skyline. Irish Times counted 70 construction cranes towering over Dublin from the 7th floor of their office building on June 1st. This number represents a sizable increase compared to the number Irish Times counted in the first few months of this year. The number of cranes is predicted to continue to rise based on the number of large …

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Danger of a new housing bubble?

While the economy is still in recovery, housing supply has been quickly picking up in the past few years. With government construction plans such as the 2013 Forfas Strategy, Capital Investment Plan, and Action Plan for Housing and the Homeless, the housing boom will likely continue if not further accelerate in the years to come.

There are voices of warning: the Fiscal Advisory Council warns that the trends in output and employment in the construction industry may overheat the overall economy, leading to rapidly raising prices and wages. There are also those who believe that output in the construction industry is recovering slowly and still well below what it should be. DKM Economic Consultants recently published a report lamenting a lack of skilled personnel in construction and advocating for greater government funding and availability of apprenticeships.

Acknowledging that the housing supply response is driven by pent up demand, The Fiscal Advisory Council warns that the speed and scale of the response is the real issue. A dramatic increase …

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Could Monetary Policy be affecting the Mortgage Default Rate?

With reference to How does monetary policy pass-through affect mortgage default? Evidence from the Irish mortgage market by David Byrne, Robert Kelly, and Conor O’Toole. 04/RT/2017

With the loosening structure of the monetary policy by central banks after the global financial crisis, which allowed the mortgage interest rates to be lower which could have led to a lower default rate on mortgages. This post will focus on two different types of mortgages the Standard Variable Rate mortgage (most commonly known as SVR) and the Tracker mortgage.

A SVR is a mortgage where the lender has the ability to decide when and if the interest rate on the loan will change while a Tracker mortgage is where the interest rate is set to a certain percentage above the European Central Bank interest rate. As the number of Tracker mortgages were increasing while the European Central Bank interest rate was decreasing, the banks started to lose money on them as the interest rate on the mortgage payments were not high enough to cover the cost of the loan. …

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Property Company Drops Landlords: What this means for Dublin’s rental market

Property agent Hooke & MacDonald announced Monday that it will no longer manage individual lettings because of the paperwork costs involved. The Residential Tenancies Act of 2004 has been recently amended by the Residential Tenancies Act of 2015 and the Planning and Development and Residential Tenancies Act of 2016, which extended rent pressure zones, made it harder to raise rents and increased the frequency of rent reviews and other bureaucratic procedures for private rented housing.

For a large property company like Hooke & MacDonald, the new regulations mean that managing single property lettings is no longer profitable. The company suffers from economies of scale, and only by managing entire apartment blocks and multiple lettings will it be cost efficient. For landlords renting a single property, this means not only being restricted by the regulations but also having to find a different company to represent them.

Hooke & MacDonald’s response reflects the consequences of the new regulations. In particular, regulation on rent pressure zones restrict the rise in rents …

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Irish Times mention Irish Mortgage Brokers, 9th May 2017

We were mentioned by the Irish Times in a piece about mortgage arrears. It was in conjunction with a talk given to the Housing Agency on mortgage arrears. It quoted part of the talk we gave…

Financial adviser Karl Deeter told the conference his research puts the non-engagement rate at closer to 80 per cent.

Mr Deeter said the courts are “predisposed” towards borrowers, and that people are given many chances before they lose their homes.

“There’s three magic rules if you want to lose your home: pay zero for a long period of time, don’t engage with your lender – and then don’t show up to court,” he said.

“These three inputs were central to virtually every case of possession we saw.”

Mr Deeter said that according to his research, more than 90 per cent of distressed borrowers who engaged with their lender were able to work out some sort of deal to avoid repossession.

 

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The housing market in Iran

This is a guest blog post covering some topics on Iranian housing, it was contributed by MNA.

House Prices: The norm in Iran for valuing any real estate is by location and meterage of that location so for any individual trying to see what the market is for buying or renting, all you need is to look at any particular area and there are plenty of ways of cross checking and seeing if the price is right.

Looking at pricing via advertisements helps, as does speaking with the local estate agents who will tell you  the going rate before you start your search so that you would have a good idea of what you can afford and where you can live.

The Local currency is very volatile and everyone is worried of that, but in reality all the trading is conducted with USD or Euro so no matter what happens, when you are trying to price an item it is always reflected on the FX rate, as all expensive ticket items would have an important role in the economy. http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?From=IRR&To=EUR …

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Where we are in the property cycle and what to expect next

Property cycles have always been a source of fascination for me (KD) and it’s worth briefly mentioning where we are now and where we are likely to go.

In the past I have always said that there are two broadly distinct phases, the first is a post-crash recovery where you see prices come back then rise fairly quickly before stalling.

The ‘stall’ is a mid cycle phenomenon where due to prices having risen you see a lot of buyers back off or take stock of the position, the memory of ‘we saw something like this before’ is still there to haunt them.

After that you get into the second phase where the upward momentum recommences but this time, having seen that the stall was somewhat ‘false’ (in the sense that it is perceived that way, it doesn’t actually have to be that), prices rise up even quicker.

This is unexpected (to some) and evidence that you have to ‘get in’ on the game. It brings us to the second phase which is the classic ‘boom-bust’. This eventuality is inevitable in …

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Newstalk ‘Talking point’ on housing with Sarah Carey

We rarely get to take part in a show that covers so many diverse and interesting points, but last Saturday was an exception.

‘Talking Point’ was about housing and Sarah Carey chaired the conversation excellently with a panel consisting of Ronan Lyons (Daft.ie, Trinity and Sunday Independent), Lorcan Sirr (DIT and Sunday Times), and Karl Deeter (Irish Mortgage Brokers, The Sun and The Sunday Business Post).

Topics ranged from false statistics to future crashes and current dilemmas, if you are into housing even in a tangential way this is a podcast well worth listening back to.

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Generation Rent? Try generation Broke

It bothers me when people promote long-term renting as a better choice than home ownership because it belies some basic facts.

When I was studying accounting, I was taught to be accurate. When I was learning about financial advice, I was taught to be prudent. Yet both of these concerns are often cast aside when debating the benefits of buying versus renting.

Nationally we are at an important juncture. It’s acknowledged that huge numbers of people won’t be able to afford to buy a home. If this proves to be true, many will also be locked out of one of life’s most wealth-creating activities.

The first problem is the nature of the comparison. If rent is €1,300 a month and a mortgage costs €1,500, then it’s cheaper to rent, right? Well . . . no it isn’t. The outlay is less, but the actual cost of the provision of occupancy is the rent versus the interest portion of the mortgage, not the entire payment. I will explain that point.

People often say rent is dead money. To be fair, so …

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Newstalk: Karl Deeter on the Pat Kenny show discussing pensions

The Pat Kenny Show on Newstalk had us on to talk about the future of pensions and to help people understand some of the looming issues in the retirement space.

It is a complex problem which is affected by everything from home-ownership to central bank interest rates. The main thing to take from it is that everybody who can start a pension, no matter how small, should do so. One of the biggest issues is the fact that people don’t even have one they can contribute to.

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