Inflation Rates Return to Normal

 

The current housing prices in Dublin have been talked about extensively recently. The newest trend shows that housing prices have reached peak affordability and now some of the wealthy classes of people are having trouble affording homes. Current house prices in Dublin are more than nine times the average salary making them unattainable for the majority of people because mortgages can only be 3.5 times your salary. Additionally, these numbers have not been seen since the Celtic Tiger Era, however, the central bank has been more careful this time and increased borrowing rules unlike during the Celtic Tiger Era. Prices are now beginning to slow down because simply nobody is able to afford them.

Inflation has also cooled off recently with a decrease from 12.4% last May to 2.8% a year later. Dublin has seen a significantly smaller inflation rate with an increase of prices from the current year to May of .6%.

The region of Dublin had the highest median price of 366,000 Euros which is just over 9 times more than its average salary of 40,000 Euros. …

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Talking Money – Switch your mortgage to save

This week on ‘Talking Money’ Karl Deeter and Jill Kerby were discussing ‘switching’ with Cormac on RTE’s Drivetime. It was coincidental that many of the points we made were reinforced by the Central Bank findings this week on mortgage switching on points such as assertive customer behaviour being important and not allowing inertia to hold people back.

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AIB ‘Portable Trackers’ what does it mean?

AIB (who encompass EBS and Haven) have announced that their existing tracker customers can ‘keep their tracker’ if they move. The update from the broker arm of the bank Haven said this was confirmed only for existing Haven customers and that AIB would release their update towards the end of July but the news in the papers says otherwise.

What does this mean?

Firstly it is limited to the customers of the state owned bank, it is also more generous than competitors have offered which gives AIB the unusual accolade of being the bank who (at least it is perceived) write off debt faster, concede to government calls for lower rates and ensure they keep a legacy tracker book for longer than expected.

Why do they do it?

Existing customers have to dispose of one property and buy another, so it’s a way of getting ‘new lending’ buy doing so by giving it to tried and tested customers, a proven track record is a better indication of loan repayment capacity than almost any …

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Don’t be late! Banks announcing cut off dates for mortgage cheques

Every year Santa brings a few unlucky kids some coal, the banks have a similar deal for people who are late with their paperwork and it’s called a ‘cut off date’.

This means that irrespective of what you do, you won’t be able to get a mortgage cheque if you submit paperwork after a certain date (we’ll list them as they come in). The problem for some people is that they might be reliant on closing in 2013 in order to get a legal property tax avoidance for owner occupiers so if you are going to try to draw down in December do yourself a favour and get everything sorted out ASAP.

And also remember, by ‘documents in’ that means ‘on the system’ and from the time a document arrives to when it gets scanned up can take a few days depending on the institution.

Cut off dates announced thus far:

BOI and ICS: Tuesday 17th

KBC: Friday 20th

(edit: 28/11/13 10:51am)

AIB/Haven: Monday 16th

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Dear Banks, leave me alone… How to speak to them

In the process of negotiating with banks many of our customers feel various things, like intimidation, fear, confusion and anger. In trying to get a lender to give a simple and straight forward response we find that it helps to use a certain language or nomenclature in letters and replies.

The simple truth is that they tend to exert authority if you give them this authority, but if you give them the authority with the express requirement that it forces them to make a painful decision should they act upon it. The letter below is a sample that we have used with a few people who have investment properties and it seems to get a decent result.

Don’t use it until such time as you have filled in your Standard Financial Statement (SFS), the end result you are looking for with a letter like this is to get the lender to accept your rent as full settlement of your account until …

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Four channels, one show, different prices – lending looking up in 2013?

AIB currently have four lending channels, there is AIB direct (their branches), AIB Broker (via the Ballsbridge HQ), EBS (done through branches and administered via the AIB direct system) and finally Haven Mortgages (another broker channel currently still located in the old EBS offices on Burlington Road).

There are four channels all operating off of the same credit pricing and all with different rates! Meaning where you choose to apply will make a big difference, even though under the hood you are getting an identical product. This is a classic example of having a brand name product sold at one price then the ‘own brand’ which is made by the same people as the first one, put into a different package and sold at a different price.

At the moment Haven only lend up to 80% meaning you need a 20% deposit, EBS have gone up to 92% which matches them with AIB (direct and brokerage), so the next rational step is for Haven to go to 92% which we are tipped off will be happening in Q1 of 2013, …

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Banks are lending (while standards tighten)

I often complain that banks are ‘not lending’, they say this isn’t true. The Central Bank then says that lending criteria is tightening (report here). This at first seems to support the first statement, but could it be that they are lending and reining in on underwriting criteria at the same time?

It could be, AIB stated that they wanted to lend €800m this year (that was said at the end of 2011 at an in house conference), they are on track to lend €1,050m which is about 25% higher than previously expected. Bank of Ireland/ICS are saying the same thing, at the same time, the main lenders have jacked up rates and made more conservative estimations of who does or doesn’t get loans.

With the fall out in lending from 06/07′ to now, it means that there are plenty of borrowers of a high quality who are seeking finance, when you raise interest rates the stress-testing gets harder to pass, so that cuts out a lot of borrowers, as …

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Mortgage Market Trend Outlook 2012

We have made a few more bold predictions in our ‘Mortgage Market Trend Outlook 2012’ and reviewed how wrong many of our 2011 forecasts were as well.

Some of the main points thus far are:

1. That mortgage lending bottomed out in 2011. 2. That IBRC may take on some tracker loan portfolios to de-risk state owned banks (as the state already owns these loans entirely anyway). 3. That rates for existing AIB borrowers will have to go up but that for new borrowers rates may come down with changes to how prices are charged depending on risk of the proposed loan. 4. That deposit rates will start to drop. 5. That up to 25,000 mortgages will be deemed ‘unsustainable’ and that the ‘won’t pay’ contingent of arrears cases may be as high as 1 in 5.

We hope you enjoy this report, we in turn hope that we get some of the calls right!

Many thanks,

Irish Mortgage Brokers

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