Where we are in the property cycle and what to expect next

Property cycles have always been a source of fascination for me (KD) and it’s worth briefly mentioning where we are now and where we are likely to go.

In the past I have always said that there are two broadly distinct phases, the first is a post-crash recovery where you see prices come back then rise fairly quickly before stalling.

The ‘stall’ is a mid cycle phenomenon where due to prices having risen you see a lot of buyers back off or take stock of the position, the memory of ‘we saw something like this before’ is still there to haunt them.

After that you get into the second phase where the upward momentum recommences but this time, having seen that the stall was somewhat ‘false’ (in the sense that it is perceived that way, it doesn’t actually have to be that), prices rise up even quicker.

This is unexpected (to some) and evidence that you have to ‘get in’ on the game. It brings us to the second phase which is the classic ‘boom-bust’. This eventuality is inevitable in …

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Newstalk ‘Talking point’ on housing with Sarah Carey

We rarely get to take part in a show that covers so many diverse and interesting points, but last Saturday was an exception.

‘Talking Point’ was about housing and Sarah Carey chaired the conversation excellently with a panel consisting of Ronan Lyons (Daft.ie, Trinity and Sunday Independent), Lorcan Sirr (DIT and Sunday Times), and Karl Deeter (Irish Mortgage Brokers, The Sun and The Sunday Business Post).

Topics ranged from false statistics to future crashes and current dilemmas, if you are into housing even in a tangential way this is a podcast well worth listening back to.

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Today FM, Irish Mortgage Brokers feature on ‘The Last Word’ with Matt Cooper

We were pleased to be part of a discussion with Matt Cooper (Today FM) and Kevin Doyle (political editor at The Independent) on the topic of housing on The Last Word.

The analysis we provided was to make the point that help to buy cannot possibly be behind house price increases across the nation. We also made the point that prices would have risen even without it and that you need to look at the secular trend not just the short term ones.

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PTsb compel clients to go for variable rates as fixed rates start at 7.25% (no joke)

We thought a client of ours was joking when they said they were being told that as an existing customer of PTsb on their mortgage that the only fixed rates they were getting offered were more than 7%.

It’s a standard residential loan rolling off a 1 year fixed rate, the ‘existing business rates’ (to you and me that’s ‘the loyal customer rates’) are so awful that we can think of no reason for why anybody would want to borrow from PTsb unless they never want fixed rates or need the cashback offer they have.

As a broker we obviously have to consider our past, present and future relationship with any lender, one way to sour that relationship is to take clients who are on a reasonable product and price and then strip them of choice (which is what a rate of over 7% effectively does) when the initial honeymoon is over.

For that reason we would remind people to consider their lender proposition very carefully and to get independent advice because when you go direct you’ll never get to …

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Independent.ie mention Irish Mortgage Brokers

We were mentioned in the Independent today in a story relating to the Central Bank, it hinged upon the fact that they had a ‘whistleblower’ line for people wanting to report financial wrongdoing and it wasn’t operating correctly which means they couldn’t take a call.

The story quoted us as follows: Compliance officer with Irish Mortgage Brokers Karl Deeter said it was not good enough that the whistleblower phone line was not being answered and emails not getting a response.

“Imagine if you called 999 to report a crime and no one answered. What would you think of our police service?” he said. A Central Bank spokesman claimed the problem had been rectified after the situation was raised with it by the Irish Independent.

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Generation Rent? Try generation Broke

It bothers me when people promote long-term renting as a better choice than home ownership because it belies some basic facts.

When I was studying accounting, I was taught to be accurate. When I was learning about financial advice, I was taught to be prudent. Yet both of these concerns are often cast aside when debating the benefits of buying versus renting.

Nationally we are at an important juncture. It’s acknowledged that huge numbers of people won’t be able to afford to buy a home. If this proves to be true, many will also be locked out of one of life’s most wealth-creating activities.

The first problem is the nature of the comparison. If rent is €1,300 a month and a mortgage costs €1,500, then it’s cheaper to rent, right? Well . . . no it isn’t. The outlay is less, but the actual cost of the provision of occupancy is the rent versus the interest portion of the mortgage, not the entire payment. I will explain that point.

People often say rent is dead money. To be fair, so …

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Newstalk: Karl Deeter on the Pat Kenny show discussing pensions

The Pat Kenny Show on Newstalk had us on to talk about the future of pensions and to help people understand some of the looming issues in the retirement space.

It is a complex problem which is affected by everything from home-ownership to central bank interest rates. The main thing to take from it is that everybody who can start a pension, no matter how small, should do so. One of the biggest issues is the fact that people don’t even have one they can contribute to.

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Irish Mortgage Brokers on Today FM

We were asked to speak with Gavin Reilly on TodayFM’s ‘The Last Word’ where he was sitting in for Matt Cooper, to discuss a new piece of proposed legislation.

While we believe that all people are deserved of compassion and respect when it comes to financial difficulties with their family home, that it would be an error to expect the judiciary to somehow step in and make what are effectively family protection and social protection decisions on something that should be viewed via the contract.

Mortgages arrears are also more of a symptom than the inherent disease, the disease is low employment, job loss, a lack of low income housing, social housing and social supports. It would be an error to misdiagnose this and in short, only an academic or a politician could look at this problem and see the solution in the way that this proposed legislation outlines it.

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Newstalk Breakfast interview Irish Mortgage Brokers

We were pleased to be part of an interview by Newstalk featuring Karl Deeter of Irish Mortgage Brokers and Ross Maguire (SC) of New Beginnings.

The conversation was around the newly published Competition & Consumer Protection Commission (CCPC) consultation on the Irish Mortgage Market.

Our general view (tl;dr) is that competition alone cannot explain the issues inherent in the Irish mortgage market, that there are many other forces at play.

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