AIB ‘Portable Trackers’ what does it mean?

AIB (who encompass EBS and Haven) have announced that their existing tracker customers can ‘keep their tracker’ if they move. The update from the broker arm of the bank Haven said this was confirmed only for existing Haven customers and that AIB would release their update towards the end of July but the news in the papers says otherwise.

What does this mean?

Firstly it is limited to the customers of the state owned bank, it is also more generous than competitors have offered which gives AIB the unusual accolade of being the bank who (at least it is perceived) write off debt faster, concede to government calls for lower rates and ensure they keep a legacy tracker book for longer than expected.

Why do they do it?

Existing customers have to dispose of one property and buy another, so it’s a way of getting ‘new lending’ buy doing so by giving it to tried and tested customers, a proven track record is a better indication of loan repayment capacity than almost any …

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Four channels, one show, different prices – lending looking up in 2013?

AIB currently have four lending channels, there is AIB direct (their branches), AIB Broker (via the Ballsbridge HQ), EBS (done through branches and administered via the AIB direct system) and finally Haven Mortgages (another broker channel currently still located in the old EBS offices on Burlington Road).

There are four channels all operating off of the same credit pricing and all with different rates! Meaning where you choose to apply will make a big difference, even though under the hood you are getting an identical product. This is a classic example of having a brand name product sold at one price then the ‘own brand’ which is made by the same people as the first one, put into a different package and sold at a different price.

At the moment Haven only lend up to 80% meaning you need a 20% deposit, EBS have gone up to 92% which matches them with AIB (direct and brokerage), so the next rational step is for Haven to go to 92% which we are tipped off will be happening in Q1 of 2013, …

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More fixed rate mortgages disappearing

Our prediction that fixed rates would cease to exist this year is proving quite accurate, at the time we took quite a beating for making such a ‘drastic’ call in our Mortgage Market Trend Outlook report.

So far, PTsb have removed them and now Haven (and likely EBS) are set to do the same. We received notice today (see below)

The concern from a borrowers perspective is that we are getting to a point where you can’t fix a mortgage and you will be forced to ride the rate hikes that banks come up with including any that come from the ECB.

HAVEN FIXED RATE UPDATE

Due to ongoing increases in the cost of funds we will be temporarily withdrawing both new and existing business mortgage fixed rates. Significant movements on financial markets have resulted in fixed rates which would not deliver value to customers at this time.  This position will, of course, remain under constant review.

PIPELINE IMPLICATIONS

New business loan offers will be honoured until close of business Monday …

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Why a borrower bailout is not likely

The EBS is on the block and there have been countless headlines regarding the idea that debts might get written down by Wilbur Ross if the Cardinal Capital group (who he is backing) are the successful bidder. I have said that I doubt this will happen and will set out why in this post.

EBS carried out a PCAR (prudential capital assessment requirement) test in March 2010, it showed that they required €875 million in funding to come up to scratch. Thus far they received €100m in cash from the state and a further €250m in a promissory note leaving a gap of €525m to fill. The bids being touted are in the region of €550m meaning that whoever buys in is effectively bridging the gap and paying a small premium as well.

Take a look at a balance sheet and you’ll see that no matter what happens, that in the end assets=liabilities. That is an accounting identity, in our example we have a hypothetical bank which has assets and liabilities worth (for example sake) €100 million Euro.

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Sunday Time: OpEd on Mutual Building Societies

The Sunday Times ‘Money’ section ran an opinion piece by Irish Mortgage Brokers on Mutual Building Societies in which we lamented the end of an era but made the point that the benefits of mutuality no longer exist given the market we are in.

Mutual building societies have an interesting history but their purpose was ultimately financial intermediation which is what banks nowadays perform, that, along with pricing and the test of the market have shown that Mutuals no longer have a place in the market on the basis of their structure, rather the market requires firms that exist on the basis of competition just like anybody else.

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Why bid for EBS?

Along with many others, I was confused at the fascination with EBS as a takeover target. You see, EBS’s best year recorded a profit of less than €50 million. Which given the size of its operation and loan book is rather unimpressive. The company is also heavily staffed by union members meaning it would be difficult for present management to wade in and cut the numbers in a meaningful manner.

So what is the obsession with private equity and EBS? And what about PTsb?

For a start, PTsb are not currently my lead favourite as a bidder, there are two reasons, one is that the bank rescue plans are being looked at from a competition aspect in Europe, and if PTsb were to take over EBS it would reduce competitive forces, secondly, PTsb may not be in condition to do a takeover. They have their stress-test due out in September and for now we have no idea of how that will look, EBS would add a large chunk to their loan book but deposits in the society are only c. …

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Haven move LTV’s lower

The EBS distribute through brokers via their subsidiary ‘Haven Mortgages’, the EBS have thoroughly debunked the idea that mutuality means anything by charging their existing clients different rates than new clients. They have also failed to be in the driving seat for a ‘third force’, going it alone has not happened, remaining an independent entity has failed, and the likelihood of private equity getting involved will most likely hinge upon state support being part of the package, thus it seems that institutional buyers will be the only serious suitors.

It is in an environment such as this that costs should be most seriously addressed, they have done this with Haven, slashing commissions and workforce, getting the organisation lean, but thus far EBS have failed to pursue efficiency with the same zeal within their own camp, and this zombie-like bank/mutual/whatever, is now reducing LTV’s for the only efficient part of the operation, Haven will now only offer a maximum of 80% LTV to potential clients, leaving 90% loans with the least effective arm of the organisation, the agent network.

It is …

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Will Specialist or Sub-Prime lenders be better off?

With the news coming out daily about prime lenders facing higher and higher impairment charges it begs the question of who will do better during a downturn, specialist/sub prime lenders or prime high street banks?

Banks stated that they feel impairments of up to 90 basis points were likely, some have revised this figure higher several times with NIB predicting impairment of upwards of 300 basis points. Sub-prime lenders on the other hand start off with predictions of high impairment and they price and gauge the risk accordingly from the outset. Given that starting point, could it be a case that Irish specialist lenders may come out the other side of the liquidity crisis with an overall book that fares proportionately on margins than other prime lenders?

To answer this question we must first consider margins, with many banks typical margin is from 1% to 1.5% on average, however, with many prime lenders this margin is  lower because of low margin trackers that were a point of heavy competition between …

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