The market will flatline then recover.

(This article originally appeared in the Sunday Independent)

The Irish property market appears to be out of palliative care and perhaps somewhere between the ICU and recovery ward. If the historical property cycle which we don’t often discuss in Ireland holds true then we should see prices become static then within two years start to rise swiftly.

Obviously there are problems, the combined forces of high unemployment, massive oversupply in many counties, and stock mismatch (apartments for sale when people want standard housing), you could add to that list of negatives almost indefinitely.

Whether you are a fan or detractor, a healthy economy has a healthy property and construction aspect to it and there is no doubt anywhere that ours is in ill health, the National Bureau of Economic Research (USA) paper ‘The housing cycle is the business cycle’ paper is worth reading for anybody who thinks we don’t need property and construction in good order to recover.

The list of positives is smaller, but compelling, we have argued for a long time that credit and confidence are the two …

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