Negative interest rates are both gone and here at the same time.

Many commentators are talking about the end of negative interest rates in nominal terms and it’s true, interest rates are rising but in real terms they are still negative. Look at mortgage rates (for instance), you can borrow at 3% and below and meanwhile you have property price appreciation at 15% meaning that in real terms you are paying -12%.

If you can ever get something on a continuous basis at -12% that indicates ‘buy’, and that’s what people are doing, but notice that we mentioned ‘continuous’, the reality is that there is no arbitrage most of the time and this will be closed down by either rising costs, falling prices or some other outcome that we can’t forsee. Trees don’t grow to the sky, they never have and never will so the trajectory of house prices must rationalise but it’s hard to see how or where at present because the demand side seems so demonstrably strong.

I bumped into Kieran McQuinn on Pearse Street today and in our brief chat mentioned how the price changes are not sustainable, he …

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Types of mortgages and lending rules

Irish law has specialized sets of lending rules depending on the type of mortgage application. Types of applications are split into three different categories: first-time buyers, remortgaging or switching, and buy-to-let buyers. Depending on which of these categories an application falls under, different loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) limits will be used. The former refers to the minimum deposit a borrower must have on a home before getting a mortgage loan. The latter refers to the maximum amount of money borrowers can receive in relation to their yearly gross income; while this is normally capped at 3.5 times one’s income, lenders can provide additional allowances of varying amount depending on the type of application.

Firstly, there are first-time buyers. These applicants are those buying a house for the first time, so the deposit required by LTV limits is understandably less steep. They will need to have a minimum deposit of 10% of the home’s total value. For example, if the price of a home is listed as €250,000, a 10% deposit would amount to €25,000. Lenders are allowed to have …

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First time buyer steps explained

Being able to take out a mortgage has become a major hassle for all types of home buyers, but especially first time buyers. Recently, a 2018 study by the Central Bank reported that the best position to be in so that your request for a loan can be approved by one of the 7 largest lending banks is in a couple with a substantial down payment already available.

This is most likely the case because a couple can bring in two salaries, making a steady stream of income more reliable even if one person were to lose their job. Additionally, having a large down payment reduces risk for the lender. If you were to foreclose on a property, meaning you couldn’t afford to pay your mortgage anymore, there would be significantly less consequences on the lender side.

Although this is an ideal situation for approval, it is not the only solution. Plenty of first time buyers are individuals without extremely high credit scores and salaries, but there are a few key parts that must be fulfilled in order …

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Help-to-buy incentive under scrutiny

This past Sunday, current Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy said on RTE’s The Week in Politics that the Help-to-Buy initiative introduced by his predecessor is currently under review. Since its introduction in January under former Finance Minister Michael Noonan and former Housing Minister Simon Coveney, the Help-to-Buy initiative has already received nearly 7,000 applicants and has successfully helped a great percentage of them with the purchase or building of their first home. However, the initiative has recently come under fire for exacerbating the problems it intended to solve, and there is speculation that it may be dissolved.

 

The purpose of the Help-to-Buy incentive was to encourage first buyers to enter the market by helping applicants with their deposit through the refund of applicants’ income tax and DIRT other the past 4 years. It applies to first time buyers who either purchase or build new residential properties, and allows them to receive 5% of the purchase price of their new home, with an upward limit of €20,000. It is hoped that the incentive would help more people climb the property ladder, …

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Tensions are High in the Mortgage Market

This post is in reference to It’s time to shout ‘stop’ on excessive charges by Brendan Burgess and Banks warned over cashback mortgage deals by Donal O’Donovan. Both published on June 16 2017 in the Independent.

Interest rates are high for non-tracker mortgages and banks are offering cashback deals to manipulate customers.

Everyone is accusing everyone today in the mortgage market in Ireland with interest rates the highest in the European Union. The Competition and Consumer Protections Commission (CCPC) have sat idly by for the past years as the interest rates are rising when the CCPC is designed and paid by the taxpayer to protect the consumers. CCPC came out with a report yesterday stating Ireland needs more competition, long-term strategy, vision and more committees. No suggestions in the report have a solution for the short-term.

The Government, Central Bank, and the CCPC wants everyone to be patient and the competition with drive down mortgage rate… but how long from now? Government and the Central Bank have been saying this for the past three years and nothing has changed.

Now …

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Drivetime RTE: Mary Wilson speaks to Karl Deeter about housing, 7th March 2016

Mary Wilson discussed current housing issues with Karl Deeter on the back of a story by Charlie Weston in the Independent about first time buyers having to save up €50,000 to buy a home.

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Newstalk: Pat Kenny talks to Karl Deeter & Tom Parlon, 7th March 2016

Pat Kenny had Karl Deeter from Irish Mortgage Brokers on his show in studio and Tom Parlon on to discuss the current state of play in the Irish property market and to analyse why there wasn’t more construction and what the issues were given that there is a shortage of homes in the capital.

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Why people will still invest in property in 2016

We plan to go through the maths soon of why the tax breaks that ended in 2014 were a bigger driver of a slow down in the market than the Central Bank rules, this aside, people will still invest in property.

The world of investment is relative, not absolute and for the €90 billion sitting in deposit earning 1% (at best) or less the implications are clear, you have to invest somewhere or get substandard returns which will eventually be eroded by inflation.

Along with a future of quantitative easing in Europe, the likelihood of a Dollar that will get stronger and a stock market that looks toppy to many, property will remain a focus for better or worse with many people who have money.

On the capital side you have a known shortage of property, that would lead some to believe there are significant capital gains to be had. On the dividend or yield side, you have strong rents which are still showing signs of rising.

Rents are certainly very strong versus the return on deposits even when you …

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Newstalk: Pat Kenny Show on variable rates

We were asked to speak with Pat Kenny today about variable rates and the government plan to intervene to make banks drop them. This was, after considering various pieces of evidence shown to be a deeply political rather than pragmatic move. We also demonstrated that there are documents which the Minister for Finance had drafted up with the banks specifically stating that he would not intervene on matters of pricing, the recent round of ‘meetings’ is in direct contravention of that.

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Talking Money on ‘savings’

On this weeks ‘Talking Money’ which is a regular contribution to RTE’s Drivetime we covered the topic of savings rates. Last week we looked at what low rates does to debt (makes it more manageable), the flip-side to that coin is the savers market and now savers are stuck looking for a return that isn’t forthcoming from deposit rates. So how do you outperform? We had a few ideas, but the news is always the same, you have to take on risk to get higher return.

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