Irish Mortgage Brokers Blog

If you go into arrears on your mortgage or you talk to your lender because you believe you are a ‘pre-arrears’ candidate then you will be asked to fill in a ‘Standard Financial Statement‘ or SFS which is part of the Mortgage Arrears Resolution Process (MARP) which started last year.

Engaging with the lender is a key tenet of this and filling in the SFS and liaising with the lender on aspects of it. The information in this is what will be used to negotiate the repayment that you will pay in cases where lifestyle adjustment does not allow you to make the full payment.

This is the usual update of rates available at the moment. As you’ll notice, AIB is the leader in almost every section. However, they are not necessarily lending to every client hoping to obtain finance with them - to know if they’ll be the lender of choice you need to construct the application in a manner that will ensure it shows the best aspects of the case to them.

There are lots of other lenders out there too (we deal with the pillar banks and many others as well), so looking at ‘best rate’ is perhaps different than ‘best attainable rate’.

Anyway, here is the list, if you ever want mortgage advice give us a call! 016790990

Best variable rate mortgage: AIB 3.24% (with one for 2.84% < 50% LTV)

Best 1yr fixed rate mortgage: AIB 4.15%

Best 2yr fixed rate mortgage: PTsb 3.1% < 50% LTV, otherwise AIB 4.65%

Best 3yr fixed rate mortgage: AIB 4.88%

Best 5yr fixed rate mortgage: PTsb 3.7% < 50% LTV, otherwise its AIB 5.35%

Best 10yr fixed rate mortgage: n/A 12/2011

Oh, one final thing, AIB called everybody into a meeting at their head office about two weeks ago, the resounding message was that they are going to be lending more in 2012 but prudence will remain and prices will change (upwards to more comparable market rates).

We were happy to comment on the Keane report in this news piece by Martina Fitzgerald in RTE

We were delighted at the invitation to join the Marian Finucane show on RTE 1 last Saturday for the second time this year, we were asked to go on alongside Angela Keegan of MyHome.ie to talk about property prices, mortgage lending criteria and property tax.

The RealPlayer version is here

You can check out an MP3 of it here

Or go to RTE and go through the list of shows to find it here

If you were listening to the show and have any questions relating to it please feel free to call us or email your query. We hope you enjoyed the show and if not then listen back to it!

We hope to be on this show again soon and help to raise the debate of Property Tax again.

We were very pleased to see that we were mentioned in the Sunday Times ‘Money’ section this week in an article by Niall Brady in which he examined the implications of reduced competition and increased regulation in the financial services market in Ireland.

For our part we were asked about mortgage credit and had this to say: ‘Karl Deeter of Irish Mortgage Brokers said: “Lenders are using every blunt instrument in the box to frustrate loan applications. One of my clients was turned down on the pretext her employment wasn’t secure. She works in reinsurance and, because of last year’s record floods, her employer recorded a loss. It is part of a global reinsurance giant, though, that makes €3 billion in profits a year. That’s the type of stupidity that borrowers are dealing with.”

First-time buyers must have at least a 10% deposit and a record of saving to back it up. “Banks aren’t interested in parental gifts or guarantees,” said Deeter. “They are interested in your ability to meet the repayments — not somebody else’s. Make sure you pay your rent by standing order, not cash or cheque, so that lenders can see the money leaving your account’.

We are of the belief that lenders are going to continue to contract credit in 2010 but that a new trend will arise in which they start to extend credit more freely but at much higher margins, this will help to offset the losses being made by trackers but they will need to wait until they have dealt further with their bond issues and also that of the arrears on the book, to see how deep they run.

I was interested in the front page of today’s Independent in which Charlie Weston broke a really big story about Irish banks being in advanced stages of designing ‘Negative Equity Mortgages’ (this is vastly different than the Negative Equity Loan/Short Sale Loan we have discussed previously). Essentially the bank will allow an individual to carry negative equity out of one property and move that onto another one within certain parameters.

This practice has already existed in the UK and is offered by Nationwide, Coventry and RBS, the schemes have not proved to be very popular, in part because of the stringent underwriting required. It is one thing for a client to fall into negative equity but another to actually facilitate them in compounding that fact and taking a further bet on their ability to repay. What do I mean by that?

First Loan: €200,000
Value: €150,000
Neg/Eq: €50,000

Then the €50,000 shortfall is passed into a second loan of (for example) €200,000 (which by nature will essentially be a 100% mortgage) and now they owe €250,000 with €50,000 negative equity in place the day they close.

In this case the borrower now owes more but they have a different property which they are more happy with and underwriting will ensure that they can still service the loan, but how many people will be willing to take up such a product? And who will the bank be willing to lend to on this basis? Credit is already tight, to trust a person with yet more money and negative equity in advance is a gamble, this beast is the evil love child of 100% mortgages - the very brand of lending that was a factor in the property bubble.

The sole saving grace is that people won’t opt for it, in the UK the uptake has been incredibly low, it is a niche product with little in the way of demand, it will help the people who are happy to use it and will be of little use to the average borrower, having said that, the Regulator recently said that banks have failed to learn their lessons from the crisis and that they don’t lend enough to business and rely to heavily on property, if this is the latest in financial innovation can we truly say they are learning anything at all?

Primetime took a look at the mortgage market situation in Ireland on the 2nd of February, they spoke to various industry experts as well as people on the street about their feelings on the situation. The clips below are well worth watching.

In this clip Primetime spoke to people on the street, and the general opinion was one of empathy for borrowers in trouble but the overall tone was that people didn’t necessarily want to step in and have their tax money going to bail them out. Then David Murphy interviews an anonymous borrower who is in debt trouble, as well as getting the opinion of Irish Mortgage Brokers Operations Manager Karl Deeter and Paul Joyce of the Free Legal Aid Centre (FLAC).

In the second video Pat Farrell of the IBF (Irish Bankers Federation), Stephen Kinsella (Lecturer of economics at University Limerick, and author of ‘Ireland in 2050), Pauline Blackwell of FLAC (free legal advice centre) and Ciaran Cuffe of the Green Party talk to Miriam O’Callaghan about the issues of debt and the solutions for solving impaired mortgages.

The third clip looks at the effects of interest rates as well as the PTsb decision to increase their interest rates, featuring David Guinane of PTsb talking to an Oireachtas Committee. Charlie Weston of the Irish Independent newspaper (personal finance editor) also features.

‘I have a tracker mortgage so I don’t care’ a man recently said to me when I was talking about the near definite increase in margins that we will start to see in mortgages as lenders seek margin and reprice risk.

It was almost said in a smug manner, a kind of ‘yeah, times are hard but I have my tracker mortgage’, and then it struck me, most banks have a get out clause, they don’t have to use it, but they might. So I thought it might be interesting to point out exactly how this could come about, and essentially the relationship it has with falling property values, so if your lender ever calls you out of the blue asking you to let a valuer into your gaff be sure to say ‘no’.

The way that trackers could be wholesale removed from borrowers is via an up to date valuation where the tracker rate is connected to the loan to value (LTV) of the property, many tracker mortgages only exist because of a covenant where the loan was at a certain level or band of LTV at the time it was taken out (such as <60% LTV), and the danger is that the best of them were based upon low LTV’s which are more exposed to price drops.

Huh?

O.k. say you got a loan that was just a ‘general tracker’ at ECB+1.25% (no LTV restriction or an inverse LTV - eg: this was a rate for loans of 80% and above), then the value of your home isn’t really an issue, but some were ultra low margin loans along the lines of ECB+0.5% if your mortgage versus property was less than 50%. So put that in figures. Bought a place for €300,000 in 2003, property market goes wild, refinance in 2006 because the top end of the market is now at €600,000 and the ECB+0.5% loan commences.

But then prices fall 30% (take any figure you want the idea behind the example remains the same) and now the place is worth €420,000 and the loan is at €270,000. You are now in breach of your LTV covenant, the lender knows it, and you know it too, but nobody has reacted yet…. key word ‘yet’.

If a lender gets an up to date valuation and you are not within your agreed LTV brackets then they could potentially take the loan away from you and replace it with the appropriate LTV product, now that trackers don’t exist any more that replacement case would invariably be a variable rate.

That would represent a huge win for banks, essentially removing low margin low profit loans which likely still have a great LTV and replacing them with higher margin variables during a time where refinancing is extremely difficult, if a bank does this their customers won’t be able to do a thing about it, jump up and down perhaps, but otherwise helpless.

Who would do such a thing? The first will be (if it happens) a bank that isn’t covered by the State Guarantee or NAMA, they have nothing to lose and no political pressure to bow to, I hope I’m wrong, but when there is money on the table somebody tends to take it eventually and in this instance there are piles of cash for the taking and the thing that puzzles me is why this move hasn’t already been made.

We have just been informed that one the lenders we deal with are only getting through applications received by the 4th of March, that is a near 20 day delay on new applications they are considering. Why the backlog? Has the market suddenly recovered? Are they being flooded?

No, rather it is a case that in banks nearly everybody has been enlisted to work in ‘collections’ and the staff were taken from every other department, in particular the ‘new business’ section. The bank we are talking about today merged their direct channel with brokerage so even going via a branch makes no difference, the whole company has only four working underwriters.

So inasmuch as the credit explosion saw too many resources being thrown at lending and the expansion of same, the crunch is doing the exact opposite by overshooting the mark in the reduction of resources. For a publicly quoted bank to be 20 days behind means that the market is facing yet another hurdle in reaching its rational level. Lending hasn’t frozen, people are still borrowing, the rules have changed but the game has not.

Banks will lend on good collateral, at good margins and with strict criteria. This is not punitive, it is intelligent, if loose credit got us here it won’t get us out any more than you could burn healing onto a fire victim. Having said that, a twenty day delay for a preliminary response is a worse turn around time than we had in the 1970’s. So somehow lenders have found a way to reverse the efficiency of their operations by up to 35 years. If it wasn’t so tragic it would be interesting.

Criteria is also a moving target, what goes one day doesn’t the next and this is causing difficulty for any people who wish to transact, if some semblence of consistency can be brought into the market it would be an aid to the adjustment and allow bottoms to occur where they should rather than where they will, we say this because it is our belief that property will overshoot the bottom in a downward trend in the same way that it overshot the true values during the bubble years.

Banks don’t have a corporate responsibility in any of the areas discussed in this post, but if they have any common sense they would ensure that criteria is consistent and understood, as well as ensuring processing is done in a timely manner, if you are getting a ‘yes’ or a ‘no’ it shouldn’t take three weeks to find out.

I have read several articles in this week in our  national papers and in them the authors said ‘banks are not lending’ and in one it was implied that this was somehow wrong. A point of order must be raised, firstly, it’s not wrong and secondly they actually are lending, just not freely or irresponsibly.

The frustrating thing is that even after all of the fallout, all of the crashing property prices, all of the international crisis news, that so many people still don’t get it. Cheap credit and easy lending is what go us here to begin with, we won’t fix the Irish economy with more mortgages being freely available.

Lobbyists take note: While you might strong-arm or influence the Government (I don’t know which method lobbyists use but either way they are effective) into supplying money for mortgages via recapitalisation or Homechoiceloan or any other plan, the fact is that reasonable people will not sign up to it, they will buy when they are good and ready, and when they have some confidence.

Are banks lending? In short they must be or Irish Mortgage Brokers wouldn’t exist, nor would any other mortgage broker. We are successfully helping our clients who do want to borrow in the current environment to find the best deals and these loans are drawing down. The common thread however, is that banks are reapplying traditional standards.

What does that mean? It means that getting a mortgage is not an ‘entitlement’ it is not a ‘right’ nor will it be ‘easy’, nor should it be, it is ease of credit and the large supply of it, when matched with extremely low interest rates that were kept down for too long that fuelled the Irish property boom, I now refer to it as the ‘ka-boom’ because we are now at the second stage of the explosion, only this time its a downward trajectory.

Lend freely, at high margins, and on good collateral with adequate security. That is what must be done in order for banks to survive. The laughable issue is that the state made a big song and dance about ensuring loans were provided to first time buyers! In fact, businesses need the money more, the first time buyer market is quiet at the moment for the very reason that confidence, job security, and a falling market don’t normally result in lots of transactions, the adjustment is natural, our reaction to it however, is far from that.

There is no ‘entitlement’ to credit, anybody who goes down that road is only setting us up for property-crash 2.0. The explosive mix of easy credit, historically low interest rates and a wall of liquidity with a glut in savings is the precise combination that brought us here, if anything, banks are doing the sensible thing in paring back lending at least to some degree.

As a mortgage brokerage we are obviously feeling the pain of this more than most, but it is the medecine that must be taken in order for there to be a market in the future, if we fan the flames of the toxic tiger during its death knell we won’t resurect a healthy creature, we’ll merely reincarnate the beast that brought us here to begin with.